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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Tabatha Ricci won · S-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1498

Tabatha RiccivsTecia PenningtonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · Saturday, May 11, 2024St. Louis, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Tabatha Ricci won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTabatha Ricci: WrestlervsTecia Pennington: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Tabatha Ricci wins(76.1%)

Actual result: Tabatha Ricci wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tabatha Ricci at -152 American odds

+$66 profit

$166 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Tabatha Ricci

Red Corner

Tecia Pennington

Blue Corner

-152

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+128

(44%)

1492

Elo

1498

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'1"

Height

5'1"

154.94 cm

Reach

152.4 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tabatha RicciL2 streak

oldest →

vs Angela Hill · Aug 24

vs Yan Xiaonan · Nov 24

KOvs Amanda Ribas · Jul 25

DECvs Virna Jandiroba · Apr 26

DECvs Fatima Kline · Jul 26

latest

Tecia Pennington

oldest →

vs Carla Esparza · Oct 24

vs Luana Pinheiro · May 25

vs Denise Gomes · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tabatha RicciMetricTecia Pennington

4.00

Strikes / min

4.73

4.83

Strikes absorbed / min

3.48

57%

Strike defense

61%

2.51

TDs / 15 min

0.56

65%

Takedown defense

62%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.83Δ 2.08 — meaningful gap+1.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tabatha RicciTecia Pennington

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tabatha Ricci(10 fights)Tecia Pennington(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.1|Blue +6.1

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tabatha RicciTargetTecia Pennington

By target zone

30% acc · 59%

Head

33% acc · 80%

47% acc · 17%

Body

43% acc · 8%

68% acc · 24%

Leg

91% acc · 13%

By position

36% acc · 89%

Distance

36% acc · 88%

75% acc · 11%

Clinch

38% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tabatha Ricci rounds

even

Tecia Pennington rounds

Round 1Tecia Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control0:07

42Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control3:01

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control2:07

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 143

Sig Strikes

80 / 219

38.7%

Sig Str %

35%

94 / 186

Total Strikes

92 / 231

1 / 10

TDs

0 / 2

11%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:15

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tecia Pennington	42 / 107	47 / 112	0 / 0
1	Tabatha Ricci	25 / 76	26 / 77	1 / 3
2	Tecia Pennington	15 / 47	21 / 53	0 / 0
2	Tabatha Ricci	10 / 27	32 / 50	0 / 5
3	Tecia Pennington	23 / 65	24 / 66	0 / 2
3	Tabatha Ricci	19 / 40	36 / 59	0 / 2

Tabatha Ricci

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach61.0"

Fights12

Tecia Pennington

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach60.0"

Fights4