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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Tabatha Ricci won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1463

Tabatha RiccivsMaria OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · Saturday, October 23, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tabatha Ricci won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTabatha Ricci: WrestlervsMaria Oliveira: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Tabatha Ricci wins(50.7%)

Actual result: Tabatha Ricci wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tabatha Ricci at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tabatha Ricci has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tabatha Ricci has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Maria Oliveira has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tabatha Ricci

Red Corner

Maria Oliveira

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+215

(32%)

1492

Elo

1463

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'1"

Height

5'6"

154.94 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tabatha RicciL2 streak

oldest →

vs Angela Hill · Aug 24

vs Yan Xiaonan · Nov 24

KOvs Amanda Ribas · Jul 25

DECvs Virna Jandiroba · Apr 26

DECvs Fatima Kline · Jul 26

latest

Maria OliveiraL2 streak

oldest →

vs Gloria de Paula · Jun 22

vs Vanessa Demopoulos · Nov 22

vs Diana Belbita · Jun 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tabatha RicciMetricMaria Oliveira

4.00

Strikes / min

5.03

4.83

Strikes absorbed / min

5.76

57%

Strike defense

44%

2.51

TDs / 15 min

0.95

65%

Takedown defense

47%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.83evenly matched on net striking-0.73

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tabatha RicciMaria Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tabatha Ricci(10 fights)Maria Oliveira(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +29.1|Blue -29.1

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tabatha RicciTargetMaria Oliveira

By target zone

39% acc · 68%

Head

27% acc · 52%

75% acc · 19%

Body

55% acc · 27%

80% acc · 13%

Leg

82% acc · 21%

By position

30% acc · 47%

Distance

35% acc · 92%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

88% acc · 45%

Ground

50% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tabatha Ricci rounds

even

Maria Oliveira rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control1:22

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Tabatha Ricci edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns2

Control2:20

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 3Tabatha Ricci edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control2:56

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

62 / 135

Sig Strikes

66 / 178

44.7%

Sig Str %

37%

103 / 187

Total Strikes

90 / 207

5 / 11

TDs

0 / 0

55%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:38

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Maria Oliveira	28 / 81	34 / 87	0 / 0
1	Tabatha Ricci	21 / 52	29 / 61	1 / 4
2	Maria Oliveira	19 / 48	25 / 56	0 / 0
2	Tabatha Ricci	29 / 48	44 / 64	2 / 2
3	Maria Oliveira	19 / 49	31 / 64	0 / 0
3	Tabatha Ricci	12 / 35	30 / 62	2 / 5

Tabatha Ricci

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach61.0"

Fights12

Maria Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4