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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Tabatha Ricci won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1544

Gillian Robertson editorial illustration

Tabatha RiccivsGillian RobertsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · Saturday, June 24, 2023Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Tabatha Ricci won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTabatha Ricci: WrestlervsGillian Robertson: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Tabatha Ricci wins(58.2%)

Actual result: Tabatha Ricci wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tabatha Ricci at -138 American odds

+$72 profit

$172 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gillian Robertson enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Tabatha Ricci has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tabatha Ricci

Red Corner

Gillian Robertson

Blue Corner

-138

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+108

(48%)

1492

Elo

1544

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'1"

Height

5'5"

154.94 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tabatha RicciL2 streak

oldest →

vs Angela Hill · Aug 24

vs Yan Xiaonan · Nov 24

KOvs Amanda Ribas · Jul 25

DECvs Virna Jandiroba · Apr 26

DECvs Fatima Kline · Jul 26

latest

Gillian RobertsonW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Polyana Viana · Jan 24

vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez · Jun 24

vs Luana Pinheiro · Nov 24

KOvs Marina Rodriguez · May 25

vs Amanda Lemos · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tabatha RicciMetricGillian Robertson

4.00

Strikes / min

2.71

4.83

Strikes absorbed / min

2.86

57%

Strike defense

56%

2.51

TDs / 15 min

2.76

65%

Takedown defense

38%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.83evenly matched on net striking-0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tabatha RicciGillian Robertson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tabatha Ricci(10 fights)Gillian Robertson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -52.1|Blue +52.1

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tabatha RicciTargetGillian Robertson

By target zone

23% acc · 59%

Head

21% acc · 41%

68% acc · 17%

Body

60% acc · 32%

73% acc · 24%

Leg

72% acc · 28%

By position

31% acc · 95%

Distance

35% acc · 97%

43% acc · 3%

Clinch

29% acc · 3%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tabatha Ricci rounds

even

Gillian Robertson rounds

Round 1Tabatha Ricci edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns2

Control0:30

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns1

Control0:08

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Tabatha Ricci edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:25Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

100 / 315

Sig Strikes

76 / 219

32%

Sig Str %

32.7%

101 / 318

Total Strikes

78 / 225

3 / 8

TDs

1 / 4

33%

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:38

Ctrl Time

0:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gillian Robertson	12 / 48	14 / 53	0 / 1
1	Tabatha Ricci	29 / 80	30 / 81	2 / 3
2	Gillian Robertson	36 / 86	36 / 86	0 / 0
2	Tabatha Ricci	31 / 114	31 / 115	1 / 3
3	Gillian Robertson	28 / 85	28 / 86	1 / 3
3	Tabatha Ricci	40 / 121	40 / 122	0 / 2

Tabatha Ricci

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach61.0"

Fights12

Gillian Robertson

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights20