Flyweight

3 Rounds

Sumudaerji won · S-DEC R3

Elo1522

Elo1527

SumudaerjivsMitch RaposoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Saturday, April 12, 2025Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Sumudaerji won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSumudaerji: Elusive strikervsMitch Raposo: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Sumudaerji wins(69.2%)

Actual result: Sumudaerji wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sumudaerji at -144 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Mitch Raposo (54.1%).
Sumudaerji has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Sumudaerji

Red Corner

Mitch Raposo

Blue Corner

-144

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+122

(45%)

1522

Elo

1527

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'8"

Height

5'5"

182.88 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sumudaerji

oldest →

SUBvs Tim Elliott · Dec 23

vs Charles Johnson · Oct 24

vs Kevin Borjas · Aug 25

vs Jesus Aguilar · Mar 26

vs Alex Perez · May 26

latest

Mitch RaposoW2 streak

oldest →

vs Andre Lima · Jun 24

vs Azat Maksum · Oct 25

DECvs Allan Nascimento · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

SumudaerjiMetricMitch Raposo

4.43

Strikes / min

1.73

2.35

Strikes absorbed / min

2.65

62%

Strike defense

61%

0.67

TDs / 15 min

2.54

72%

Takedown defense

61%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.08Δ 3.00 — meaningful gap-0.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

SumudaerjiMitch Raposo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sumudaerji(10 fights)Mitch Raposo(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.1|Blue +5.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -140.0|Blue +140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

SumudaerjiTargetMitch Raposo

By target zone

30% acc · 56%

Head

32% acc · 89%

63% acc · 11%

Body

68% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

38% acc · 87%

Distance

32% acc · 89%

60% acc · 13%

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sumudaerji rounds

even

Mitch Raposo rounds

Round 1Mitch Raposo edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:05Control

Round 2Sumudaerji edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:16Control

Round 3Sumudaerji edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:57Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 114

Sig Strikes

9 / 26

38.3%

Sig Str %

34.3%

78 / 150

Total Strikes

13 / 30

0 / 0

TDs

6 / 19

—

TD %

31.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

4:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mitch Raposo	5 / 12	8 / 15	2 / 7
1	Sumudaerji	11 / 30	17 / 37	0 / 0
2	Mitch Raposo	2 / 5	2 / 5	1 / 6
2	Sumudaerji	14 / 39	17 / 44	0 / 0
3	Mitch Raposo	2 / 9	3 / 10	3 / 6
3	Sumudaerji	20 / 45	44 / 69	0 / 0

Sumudaerji

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Mitch Raposo

StanceSwitch

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights4