Flyweight

3 Rounds

Sumudaerji won · U-DEC R3

Elo1522

Elo1486

SumudaerjivsKevin BorjasUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Saturday, August 23, 2025Shanghai, Hebei, China

Official fight result

Sumudaerji won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSumudaerji: Elusive strikervsKevin Borjas: Striker

Two strikers, different gameplans. Volume vs precision — judges typically favor activity.

Model Prediction: Sumudaerji wins(55.1%)

Actual result: Sumudaerji wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sumudaerji at -168 American odds

+$60 profit

$160 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sumudaerji has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Sumudaerji (53.5%).
Sumudaerji has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Sumudaerji

Red Corner

Kevin Borjas

Blue Corner

-168

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+142

(41%)

1522

Elo

1486

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'5"

182.88 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sumudaerji

oldest →

SUBvs Tim Elliott · Dec 23

vs Charles Johnson · Oct 24

vs Mitch Raposo · Apr 25

vs Jesus Aguilar · Mar 26

vs Alex Perez · May 26

latest

Kevin Borjas

oldest →

vs Joshua Van · Nov 23

KOvs Alessandro Costa · May 24

vs Ronaldo Rodriguez · Mar 25

KOvs Imanol Rodriguez · Feb 26

DECvs Andre Lima · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

SumudaerjiMetricKevin Borjas

4.43

Strikes / min

3.96

2.35

Strikes absorbed / min

5.64

62%

Strike defense

49%

0.67

TDs / 15 min

0.00

72%

Takedown defense

70%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.08Δ 3.76 — meaningful gap-1.68

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

SumudaerjiKevin Borjas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sumudaerji(10 fights)Kevin Borjas(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +35.2|Blue -35.2

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

SumudaerjiTargetKevin Borjas

By target zone

44% acc · 45%

Head

23% acc · 44%

68% acc · 23%

Body

71% acc · 31%

79% acc · 32%

Leg

57% acc · 25%

By position

55% acc · 92%

Distance

27% acc · 63%

75% acc · 8%

Clinch

86% acc · 38%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sumudaerji rounds

even

Kevin Borjas rounds

Round 1Sumudaerji edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:00Control

Round 2Sumudaerji edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:17

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:49Control

Round 3Sumudaerji edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:40Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

73 / 129

Sig Strikes

16 / 44

55.7%

Sig Str %

34.7%

91 / 150

Total Strikes

23 / 51

0 / 5

TDs

0 / 5

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:17

Ctrl Time

3:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kevin Borjas	3 / 13	3 / 13	0 / 1
1	Sumudaerji	17 / 35	17 / 35	0 / 0
2	Kevin Borjas	9 / 20	15 / 26	0 / 1
2	Sumudaerji	32 / 47	36 / 51	0 / 3
3	Kevin Borjas	4 / 11	5 / 12	0 / 3
3	Sumudaerji	24 / 47	38 / 64	0 / 2

Sumudaerji

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Kevin Borjas

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights7