Flyweight

3 Rounds

Sumudaerji won · U-DEC R3

Elo1522

Elo1503

SumudaerjivsJesus AguilarUFC Prediction Result

UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · Saturday, March 7, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sumudaerji won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSumudaerji: Elusive strikervsJesus Aguilar: Submission grappler

The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.

Model Prediction: Sumudaerji wins(69.5%)

Actual result: Sumudaerji wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sumudaerji at -172 American odds

+$58 profit

$158 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sumudaerji has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Sumudaerji (53.5%).
Sumudaerji has a 25cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Sumudaerji

Red Corner

Jesus Aguilar

Blue Corner

-172

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+144

(41%)

1522

Elo

1503

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'4"

182.88 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sumudaerji

oldest →

SUBvs Tim Elliott · Dec 23

vs Charles Johnson · Oct 24

vs Mitch Raposo · Apr 25

vs Kevin Borjas · Aug 25

vs Alex Perez · May 26

latest

Jesus Aguilar

oldest →

KOvs Shannon Ross · Jul 23

vs Mateus Mendonca · Feb 24

SUBvs Stewart Nicoll · Aug 24

vs Rafael Estevam · Feb 25

vs Luis Gurule · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

SumudaerjiMetricJesus Aguilar

4.43

Strikes / min

2.54

2.35

Strikes absorbed / min

2.29

62%

Strike defense

61%

0.67

TDs / 15 min

1.52

72%

Takedown defense

45%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.08Δ 1.83 — meaningful gap+0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

SumudaerjiJesus Aguilar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sumudaerji(10 fights)Jesus Aguilar(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.9|Blue -18.9

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

SumudaerjiTargetJesus Aguilar

By target zone

38% acc · 71%

Head

19% acc · 39%

48% acc · 18%

Body

33% acc · 26%

78% acc · 11%

Leg

58% acc · 35%

By position

39% acc · 89%

Distance

29% acc · 97%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sumudaerji rounds

even

Jesus Aguilar rounds

Round 1Sumudaerji edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control0:13

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:59Control

Round 2Sumudaerji edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control1:22

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Sumudaerji edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns2

Control1:01

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

62 / 148

Sig Strikes

31 / 106

40.7%

Sig Str %

28.7%

69 / 156

Total Strikes

42 / 120

4 / 5

TDs

1 / 5

88.7%

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

2:36

Ctrl Time

2:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jesus Aguilar	13 / 35	16 / 38	0 / 1
1	Sumudaerji	16 / 44	19 / 47	1 / 1
2	Jesus Aguilar	6 / 27	10 / 34	0 / 2
2	Sumudaerji	17 / 47	19 / 50	1 / 1
3	Jesus Aguilar	12 / 44	16 / 48	1 / 2
3	Sumudaerji	29 / 57	31 / 59	2 / 3

Sumudaerji

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Jesus Aguilar

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights7