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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Sultan Aliev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Sultan AlievvsKeita NakamuraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · Saturday, April 20, 2019Saint Petersburg, Saint Petersburg, Russia

Official fight result

Sultan Aliev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Keita Nakamura wins(55.9%)

Actual result: Sultan Aliev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Keita Nakamura at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sultan Aliev has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Keita Nakamura (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Sultan Aliev

Red Corner

Keita Nakamura

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1492

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sultan Aliev

oldest →

KOvs Kenny Robertson · Jan 15

vs Bojan Velickovic · Dec 16

KOvs Warlley Alves · May 18

latest

Keita Nakamura

oldest →

SUBvs Kyle Noke · Jul 16

vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Oct 16

vs Alex Morono · Sep 17

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Apr 18

vs Salim Touahri · Dec 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sultan AlievMetricKeita Nakamura

1.41

Strikes / min

2.23

2.20

Strikes absorbed / min

3.20

56%

Strike defense

58%

1.76

TDs / 15 min

1.65

100%

Takedown defense

63%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.79evenly matched on net striking-0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sultan AlievKeita Nakamura

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sultan Aliev(4 fights)Keita Nakamura(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +203.0|Blue -203.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sultan AlievTargetKeita Nakamura

By target zone

39% acc · 88%

Head

29% acc · 62%

50% acc · 8%

Body

64% acc · 24%

50% acc · 4%

Leg

57% acc · 14%

By position

38% acc · 80%

Distance

29% acc · 72%

44% acc · 16%

Clinch

80% acc · 14%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sultan Aliev rounds

even

Keita Nakamura rounds

Round 1Sultan Aliev edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control1:52

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control1:53

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Sultan Aliev edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:01

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 63

Sig Strikes

29 / 81

40.3%

Sig Str %

35.7%

32 / 70

Total Strikes

57 / 109

2 / 7

TDs

0 / 1

44.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:46

Ctrl Time

0:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Keita Nakamura	10 / 26	25 / 41	0 / 1
1	Sultan Aliev	11 / 21	16 / 26	0 / 3
2	Keita Nakamura	13 / 27	20 / 34	0 / 0
2	Sultan Aliev	7 / 17	9 / 19	1 / 3
3	Keita Nakamura	6 / 28	12 / 34	0 / 0
3	Sultan Aliev	7 / 25	7 / 25	1 / 1

Sultan Aliev

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4

Keita Nakamura

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8