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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Louis Smolka won · SUB R2
Elo1522
Elo1425

Su MudaerjivsLouis SmolkaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 · Saturday, November 24, 2018Beijing, China

Official fight result

Louis Smolka won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:07

Model Prediction: Louis Smolka wins(60.4%)

Actual result: Louis Smolka wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Louis Smolka at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Su Mudaerji enters on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Su Mudaerji (53.5%).
  • Su Mudaerji has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Su Mudaerji
Red Corner
VS
Louis Smolka
Blue Corner
+150
(40%)
Vegas Odds
-170
(63%)
1522
Elo
1425
22
Age
35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'9"
182.88 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Su MudaerjiW3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Andre Soukhamthath · Aug 19
W
KOvs Malcolm Gordon · Nov 20
W
vs Zarrukh Adashev · Jan 21
latest
Louis SmolkaL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19
L
SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20
W
KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20
L
KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21
L
KOvs Davey Grant · May 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Su MudaerjiMetricLouis Smolka
—
Strikes / min
4.67
—
Strikes absorbed / min
4.11
—
Strike defense
53%
—
TDs / 15 min
1.69
—
Takedown defense
32%
—
Sub atts / 15 min
1.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1494Strikes— vs 47.2Takedowns— vs 1.3Sub Atts— vs 1.80Form0.0 vs -0.8
Su MudaerjiLouis Smolka

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701488150515231540← oldermost recent →
Su Mudaerji(10 fights)Louis Smolka(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +96.7|Blue -96.7
Recent Form
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score
Red +46.5|Blue -46.5
Grappler Score
Red +49.5|Blue -49.5
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Su Mudaerji

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights4

Louis Smolka

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights17