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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Stipe Miocic won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1494

Elo1352

Stipe MiocicvsShane del RosarioUFC Prediction Result

UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir · Saturday, May 26, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Stipe Miocic won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:14

Style matchupStipe Miocic: Pressure fightervsShane del Rosario: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Stipe Miocic wins(71.4%)

Actual result: Stipe Miocic wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Stipe Miocic at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stipe Miocic is a KO finisher (64% of wins). Shane del Rosario has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Stipe Miocic has 49pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Shane del Rosario (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Stipe Miocic

Red Corner

Shane del Rosario

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1494

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'4"

Height

6'4"

203.2 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stipe MiocicL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Daniel Cormier · Jul 18

KOvs Daniel Cormier · Aug 19

vs Daniel Cormier · Aug 20

KOvs Francis Ngannou · Mar 21

KOvs Jon Jones · Nov 24

latest

Shane del Rosario

oldest →

KOvs Pat Barry · Dec 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stipe MiocicMetricShane del Rosario

4.67

Strikes / min

3.93

4.01

Strikes absorbed / min

2.97

52%

Strike defense

54%

1.74

TDs / 15 min

1.20

65%

Takedown defense

16%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

2.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.66evenly matched on net striking+0.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stipe MiocicShane del Rosario

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stipe Miocic(10 fights)Shane del Rosario(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +142.1|Blue -142.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -47.8|Blue +47.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stipe MiocicTargetShane del Rosario

By target zone

34% acc · 81%

Head

45% acc · 31%

80% acc · 13%

Body

93% acc · 44%

67% acc · 6%

Leg

67% acc · 25%

By position

29% acc · 66%

Distance

65% acc · 97%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

92% acc · 34%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stipe Miocic rounds

even

Shane del Rosario rounds

Round 1Shane del Rosario edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control0:29

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Stipe Miocic edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control2:28

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 84

Sig Strikes

32 / 49

47%

Sig Str %

62.5%

58 / 115

Total Strikes

33 / 50

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:57

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Shane del Rosario	29 / 44	30 / 45	0 / 0
1	Stipe Miocic	18 / 63	21 / 68	1 / 1
2	Shane del Rosario	3 / 5	3 / 5	0 / 0
2	Stipe Miocic	14 / 21	37 / 47	1 / 1

Stipe Miocic

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19

Shane del Rosario

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach—

Fights2