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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Stipe Miocic won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1494
Stipe Miocic
Elo1352

Stipe MiocicvsPhilip De FriesUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · Wednesday, February 15, 2012Omaha, Nebraska, USA

Official fight result

Stipe Miocic won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:43

Style matchupStipe Miocic: Pressure fightervsPhilip De Fries: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Stipe Miocic wins(56.1%)

Actual result: Stipe Miocic wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Stipe Miocic at -515 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stipe Miocic is a KO finisher (64% of wins). Philip De Fries has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Stipe Miocic has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Philip De Fries has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Stipe Miocic
Red Corner
VS
Philip De Fries
Blue Corner
-515
(84%)
Vegas Odds
+410
(20%)
1494
Elo
1352
43
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'5"
203.2 cm
Reach
200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stipe MiocicL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Daniel Cormier · Jul 18
W
KOvs Daniel Cormier · Aug 19
W
vs Daniel Cormier · Aug 20
L
KOvs Francis Ngannou · Mar 21
L
KOvs Jon Jones · Nov 24
latest
Philip De FriesL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Rob Broughton · Nov 11
W
SUBvs Oli Thompson · Aug 12
L
KOvs Todd Duffee · Dec 12
L
KOvs Matt Mitrione · Apr 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stipe MiocicMetricPhilip De Fries
4.67
Strikes / min
2.30
4.01
Strikes absorbed / min
3.00
52%
Strike defense
37%
1.74
TDs / 15 min
3.29
65%
Takedown defense
100%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.66Δ 1.36 — meaningful gap-0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1514 vs 1514Strikes68.0 vs 14.0Takedowns4.0 vs 3.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 1.0
Stipe MiocicPhilip De Fries

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Stipe Miocic(10 fights)Philip De Fries(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +141.9|Blue -141.9
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +28.0|Blue -28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stipe MiocicTargetPhilip De Fries

By target zone

8
47% acc · 100%
Head
7
39% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

5
36% acc · 63%
Distance
6
35% acc · 86%
0
Clinch
1
100% acc · 14%
3
100% acc · 38%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Stipe Miocic rounds
0
even
0
Philip De Fries rounds
Round 1Stipe Miocic edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:04
Knockdowns1
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
8 / 17
Sig Strikes
7 / 18
47%
Sig Str %
38%
10 / 19
Total Strikes
7 / 18
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:04
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Philip De Fries7 / 187 / 180 / 00
1Stipe Miocic8 / 1710 / 190 / 00

Stipe Miocic

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights19

Philip De Fries

StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights5