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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Stipe Miocic won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1494

Elo1393

Stipe MiocicvsJunior Dos SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, May 13, 2017Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Stipe Miocic won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:22

Style matchupStipe Miocic: Pressure fightervsJunior Dos Santos: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Junior Dos Santos wins(53.1%)

Actual result: Stipe Miocic wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Junior Dos Santos at +145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Junior Dos Santos enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stipe Miocic is a KO finisher (64% of wins). Junior Dos Santos has lost 88% of fights by KO.
Junior Dos Santos is a KO finisher (55% of wins). Stipe Miocic has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Junior Dos Santos has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Stipe Miocic

Red Corner

Junior Dos Santos

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1494

Elo

1393

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

203.2 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stipe MiocicL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Daniel Cormier · Jul 18

KOvs Daniel Cormier · Aug 19

vs Daniel Cormier · Aug 20

KOvs Francis Ngannou · Mar 21

KOvs Jon Jones · Nov 24

latest

Junior Dos SantosL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Mar 19

KOvs Francis Ngannou · Jun 19

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jan 20

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 20

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Dec 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stipe MiocicMetricJunior Dos Santos

4.67

Strikes / min

4.49

4.01

Strikes absorbed / min

3.33

52%

Strike defense

56%

1.74

TDs / 15 min

0.30

65%

Takedown defense

81%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.66evenly matched on net striking+1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stipe MiocicJunior Dos Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stipe Miocic(10 fights)Junior Dos Santos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +101.3|Blue -101.3

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -153.0|Blue +153.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stipe MiocicTargetJunior Dos Santos

By target zone

46% acc · 88%

Head

44% acc · 33%

0% acc

Body

75% acc · 25%

75% acc · 12%

Leg

100% acc · 42%

By position

38% acc · 58%

Distance

67% acc · 100%

75% acc · 12%

Clinch

62% acc · 31%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stipe Miocic rounds

even

Junior Dos Santos rounds

Round 1Stipe Miocic edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns1

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 56

Sig Strikes

12 / 18

46%

Sig Str %

66%

26 / 56

Total Strikes

12 / 18

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Junior Dos Santos	12 / 18	12 / 18	0 / 0	0
1	Stipe Miocic	26 / 56	26 / 56	0 / 0	0

Stipe Miocic

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19

Junior Dos Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19