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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Stipe Miocic won · U-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1490

Stipe MiocicvsGabriel GonzagaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson · Saturday, January 25, 2014Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Stipe Miocic won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupStipe Miocic: Pressure fightervsGabriel Gonzaga: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Stipe Miocic wins(61.4%)

Actual result: Stipe Miocic wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Stipe Miocic at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stipe Miocic is a KO finisher (64% of wins). Gabriel Gonzaga has lost 71% of fights by KO.
Stipe Miocic has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Stipe Miocic

Red Corner

Gabriel Gonzaga

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1494

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'2"

203.2 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stipe MiocicL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Daniel Cormier · Jul 18

KOvs Daniel Cormier · Aug 19

vs Daniel Cormier · Aug 20

KOvs Francis Ngannou · Mar 21

KOvs Jon Jones · Nov 24

latest

Gabriel Gonzaga

oldest →

KOvs Shawn Jordan · Oct 13

KOvs Matt Mitrione · Dec 14

KOvs Mirko Cro Cop · Apr 15

vs Konstantin Erokhin · Dec 15

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Apr 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stipe MiocicMetricGabriel Gonzaga

4.67

Strikes / min

2.12

4.01

Strikes absorbed / min

2.94

52%

Strike defense

57%

1.74

TDs / 15 min

2.80

65%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.66Δ 1.48 — meaningful gap-0.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stipe MiocicGabriel Gonzaga

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stipe Miocic(10 fights)Gabriel Gonzaga(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.5|Blue -3.5

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +126.0|Blue -126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stipe MiocicTargetGabriel Gonzaga

By target zone

28% acc · 76%

Head

29% acc · 59%

100% acc · 10%

Body

0% acc

75% acc · 14%

Leg

71% acc · 41%

By position

29% acc · 73%

Distance

35% acc · 93%

0% acc

Clinch

50% acc · 7%

59% acc · 27%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stipe Miocic rounds

even

Gabriel Gonzaga rounds

Round 1Gabriel Gonzaga edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 2Stipe Miocic edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Stipe Miocic edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control2:06

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 187

Sig Strikes

29 / 82

32.3%

Sig Str %

33.3%

77 / 205

Total Strikes

33 / 87

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 6

100%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:06

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gabriel Gonzaga	17 / 36	17 / 36	1 / 1
1	Stipe Miocic	11 / 43	11 / 43	0 / 0
2	Gabriel Gonzaga	6 / 26	6 / 26	0 / 4
2	Stipe Miocic	25 / 77	25 / 77	0 / 0
3	Gabriel Gonzaga	6 / 20	10 / 25	0 / 1
3	Stipe Miocic	27 / 67	41 / 85	1 / 1

Stipe Miocic

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19

Gabriel Gonzaga

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12