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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Francis Ngannou won · KO/TKO

Elo1494

Elo1496

Stipe MiocicvsFrancis NgannouUFC Prediction Result

UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · Saturday, March 27, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Francis Ngannou won

KO/TKO

Model Prediction: Stipe Miocic wins(64.6%)

Actual result: Francis Ngannou wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Stipe Miocic at +117 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Francis Ngannou enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Francis Ngannou is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Stipe Miocic has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Stipe Miocic has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Stipe Miocic

Red Corner

Francis Ngannou

Blue Corner

+117

(46%)

Vegas Odds

-137

(58%)

1494

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

203.2 cm

Reach

210.82 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stipe Miocic

oldest →

vs Francis Ngannou · Jan 18

KOvs Daniel Cormier · Jul 18

KOvs Daniel Cormier · Aug 19

vs Daniel Cormier · Aug 20

KOvs Jon Jones · Nov 24

latest

Francis NgannouW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Nov 18

KOvs Cain Velasquez · Feb 19

KOvs Junior Dos Santos · Jun 19

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · May 20

vs Ciryl Gane · Jan 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stipe MiocicMetricFrancis Ngannou

4.67

Strikes / min

2.33

4.01

Strikes absorbed / min

2.16

52%

Strike defense

41%

1.74

TDs / 15 min

0.76

65%

Takedown defense

71%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.66evenly matched on net striking+0.17

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stipe MiocicFrancis Ngannou

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stipe Miocic(10 fights)Francis Ngannou(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.9|Blue +1.9

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stipe MiocicTargetFrancis Ngannou

By target zone

75% acc · 25%

Head

61% acc · 78%

100% acc · 17%

Body

50% acc · 6%

100% acc · 58%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

92% acc · 100%

Distance

47% acc · 47%

Clinch

100% acc · 22%

Ground

92% acc · 31%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stipe Miocic rounds

even

Francis Ngannou rounds

Round 1Francis Ngannou edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:04

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 2Francis Ngannou edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 13

Sig Strikes

36 / 56

90%

Sig Str %

65%

12 / 13

Total Strikes

38 / 58

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Francis Ngannou	23 / 37	24 / 38	1 / 2
1	Stipe Miocic	8 / 8	8 / 8	0 / 1
2	Francis Ngannou	13 / 19	14 / 20	0 / 0
2	Stipe Miocic	4 / 5	4 / 5	0 / 0

Stipe Miocic

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19

Francis Ngannou

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach83.0"

Fights14