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Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Stipe Miocic won · U-DEC R5
Elo1494
Stipe Miocic
Elo1496
Francis Ngannou

Stipe MiocicvsFrancis NgannouUFC Prediction Result

UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · Saturday, January 20, 2018Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Stipe Miocic won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Stipe Miocic wins(64.8%)

Actual result: Stipe Miocic wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Stipe Miocic at +150 American odds

+$150 profit

$250 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Francis Ngannou enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Francis Ngannou is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Stipe Miocic has lost 80% of fights by KO.
  • Stipe Miocic has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Stipe Miocic
Red Corner
VS
Francis Ngannou
Blue Corner
+150
(40%)
Vegas Odds
-170
(63%)
1494
Elo
1496
43
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'4"
203.2 cm
Reach
210.82 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stipe MiocicL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Daniel Cormier · Jul 18
W
KOvs Daniel Cormier · Aug 19
W
vs Daniel Cormier · Aug 20
L
KOvs Francis Ngannou · Mar 21
L
KOvs Jon Jones · Nov 24
latest
Francis NgannouW5 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Cain Velasquez · Feb 19
W
KOvs Junior Dos Santos · Jun 19
W
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · May 20
W
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Mar 21
W
vs Ciryl Gane · Jan 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stipe MiocicMetricFrancis Ngannou
4.67
Strikes / min
2.33
4.01
Strikes absorbed / min
2.16
52%
Strike defense
41%
1.74
TDs / 15 min
0.76
65%
Takedown defense
71%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.66evenly matched on net striking+0.17

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1614 vs 1577Strikes48.1 vs 14.0Takedowns1.3 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.17Form1.0 vs 1.0
Stipe MiocicFrancis Ngannou

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Stipe Miocic(10 fights)Francis Ngannou(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -1.9|Blue +1.9
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +1.6|Blue -1.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +203.0|Blue -203.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stipe MiocicTargetFrancis Ngannou

By target zone

45
67% acc · 64%
Head
17
16% acc · 81%
9
82% acc · 13%
Body
4
57% acc · 19%
16
94% acc · 23%
Leg
0

By position

37
71% acc · 53%
Distance
19
18% acc · 90%
5
83% acc · 7%
Clinch
2
25% acc · 10%
28
76% acc · 40%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

5
Stipe Miocic rounds
0
even
0
Francis Ngannou rounds
Round 1Stipe Miocic edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns2
Control1:57
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 2Stipe Miocic edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns2
Control2:17
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Stipe Miocic edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns1
Control3:47
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 4Stipe Miocic edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns1
Control4:39
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Stipe Miocic edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control2:22
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
70 / 95
Sig Strikes
21 / 113
74.2%
Sig Str %
11.4%
200 / 244
Total Strikes
33 / 126
6 / 14
TDs
0 / 1
47.8%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
15:02
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Francis Ngannou15 / 6218 / 650 / 00
1Stipe Miocic16 / 2524 / 332 / 50
2Francis Ngannou4 / 274 / 270 / 00
2Stipe Miocic17 / 2429 / 372 / 30
3Francis Ngannou1 / 87 / 140 / 10
3Stipe Miocic12 / 1647 / 581 / 30
4Stipe Miocic18 / 2182 / 951 / 10
4Francis Ngannou0 / 30 / 30 / 00
5Francis Ngannou1 / 134 / 170 / 01
5Stipe Miocic7 / 918 / 210 / 20

Stipe Miocic

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights19

Francis Ngannou

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach83.0"
Fights14