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Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Stipe Miocic won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1494
Stipe Miocic
Elo1356
Fabio Maldonado

Stipe MiocicvsFabio MaldonadoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · Saturday, May 31, 2014Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Stipe Miocic won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:35

Style matchupStipe Miocic: Pressure fightervsFabio Maldonado: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Fabio Maldonado wins(57.0%)

Actual result: Stipe Miocic wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Fabio Maldonado at +535 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stipe Miocic has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Stipe Miocic
Red Corner
VS
Fabio Maldonado
Blue Corner
-650
(87%)
Vegas Odds
+535
(16%)
1494
Elo
1356
43
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'1"
203.2 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stipe MiocicL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Daniel Cormier · Jul 18
W
KOvs Daniel Cormier · Aug 19
W
vs Daniel Cormier · Aug 20
L
KOvs Francis Ngannou · Mar 21
L
KOvs Jon Jones · Nov 24
latest
Fabio MaldonadoL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Joey Beltran · Oct 13
W
vs Gian Villante · Mar 14
W
KOvs Hans Stringer · Oct 14
L
DECvs Rampage Jackson · Apr 15
L
vs Corey Anderson · Nov 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stipe MiocicMetricFabio Maldonado
4.67
Strikes / min
5.29
4.01
Strikes absorbed / min
4.31
52%
Strike defense
53%
1.74
TDs / 15 min
0.44
65%
Takedown defense
61%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.66evenly matched on net striking+0.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1552 vs 1518Strikes54.2 vs 84.9Takedowns1.5 vs 0.4Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.71Form0.8 vs 0.7
Stipe MiocicFabio Maldonado

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Stipe Miocic(10 fights)Fabio Maldonado(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +138.3|Blue -138.3
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red -1.9|Blue +1.9
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +57.0|Blue -57.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stipe MiocicTargetFabio Maldonado

By target zone

6
50% acc · 75%
Head
2
29% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0% acc
2
100% acc · 25%
Leg
0

By position

5
50% acc · 63%
Distance
2
25% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
3
75% acc · 38%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Stipe Miocic rounds
0
even
0
Fabio Maldonado rounds
Round 1Stipe Miocic edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:04
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
8 / 14
Sig Strikes
2 / 8
57%
Sig Str %
25%
11 / 18
Total Strikes
2 / 8
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:04
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Fabio Maldonado2 / 82 / 80 / 00
1Stipe Miocic8 / 1411 / 180 / 00

Stipe Miocic

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights19

Fabio Maldonado

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights11