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Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Daniel Cormier won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1494
Stipe Miocic
Elo1388
Daniel Cormier

Stipe MiocicvsDaniel CormierUFC Prediction Result

UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier · Saturday, July 7, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Cormier won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:33

Style matchupStipe Miocic: Pressure fightervsDaniel Cormier: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Daniel Cormier wins(70.0%)

Actual result: Daniel Cormier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Cormier at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Daniel Cormier has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stipe Miocic has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Stipe Miocic
Red Corner
VS
Daniel Cormier
Blue Corner
-160
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+140
(42%)
1494
Elo
1388
43
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
5'11"
203.2 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stipe MiocicL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Francis Ngannou · Jan 18
W
KOvs Daniel Cormier · Aug 19
W
vs Daniel Cormier · Aug 20
L
KOvs Francis Ngannou · Mar 21
L
KOvs Jon Jones · Nov 24
latest
Daniel CormierL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Anthony Johnson · Apr 17
W
KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Jan 18
W
SUBvs Derrick Lewis · Nov 18
L
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Aug 19
L
vs Stipe Miocic · Aug 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stipe MiocicMetricDaniel Cormier
4.67
Strikes / min
4.25
4.01
Strikes absorbed / min
2.92
52%
Strike defense
54%
1.74
TDs / 15 min
1.83
65%
Takedown defense
80%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.66evenly matched on net striking+1.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1626 vs 1622Strikes49.7 vs 52.8Takedowns1.6 vs 1.6Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.64Form1.0 vs 1.0
Stipe MiocicDaniel Cormier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Stipe Miocic(10 fights)Daniel Cormier(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +106.2|Blue -106.2
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stipe MiocicTargetDaniel Cormier

By target zone

15
37% acc · 63%
Head
20
67% acc · 80%
6
86% acc · 25%
Body
1
100% acc · 4%
3
100% acc · 13%
Leg
4
67% acc · 16%

By position

19
45% acc · 79%
Distance
19
61% acc · 76%
5
56% acc · 21%
Clinch
2
100% acc · 8%
0
Ground
4
100% acc · 16%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Stipe Miocic rounds
0
even
1
Daniel Cormier rounds
Round 1Daniel Cormier edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns1
Control1:21
Knockdowns0
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:06Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
24 / 51
Sig Strikes
25 / 37
47%
Sig Str %
67%
29 / 56
Total Strikes
31 / 43
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:21
Ctrl Time
0:06

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Daniel Cormier25 / 3731 / 430 / 00
1Stipe Miocic24 / 5129 / 561 / 10

Stipe Miocic

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights19

Daniel Cormier

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights14