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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Stipe Miocic won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1494

Elo1492

Stipe MiocicvsAndrei ArlovskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · Saturday, January 2, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Stipe Miocic won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:54

Style matchupStipe Miocic: Pressure fightervsAndrei Arlovski: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Andrei Arlovski wins(51.5%)

Actual result: Stipe Miocic wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andrei Arlovski at +220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Stipe Miocic

Red Corner

Andrei Arlovski

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1494

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

203.2 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stipe MiocicL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Daniel Cormier · Jul 18

KOvs Daniel Cormier · Aug 19

vs Daniel Cormier · Aug 20

KOvs Francis Ngannou · Mar 21

KOvs Jon Jones · Nov 24

latest

Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Collier · Apr 22

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22

KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24

vs Martin Buday · Jun 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stipe MiocicMetricAndrei Arlovski

4.67

Strikes / min

3.82

4.01

Strikes absorbed / min

3.22

52%

Strike defense

57%

1.74

TDs / 15 min

0.37

65%

Takedown defense

76%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.66evenly matched on net striking+0.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stipe MiocicAndrei Arlovski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stipe Miocic(10 fights)Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stipe MiocicTargetAndrei Arlovski

By target zone

73% acc · 100%

Head

67% acc · 57%

Body

0% acc

Leg

75% acc · 43%

By position

63% acc · 45%

Distance

55% acc · 86%

50% acc · 9%

Clinch

100% acc · 14%

100% acc · 45%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stipe Miocic rounds

even

Andrei Arlovski rounds

Round 1Stipe Miocic edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 15

Sig Strikes

7 / 12

73%

Sig Str %

58%

11 / 15

Total Strikes

7 / 12

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Andrei Arlovski	7 / 12	7 / 12	0 / 0	0
1	Stipe Miocic	11 / 15	11 / 15	0 / 0	0

Stipe Miocic

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19

Andrei Arlovski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights27