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Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Stipe Miocic won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1494
Stipe Miocic
Elo1493

Stipe MiocicvsAlistair OvereemUFC Prediction Result

UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · Saturday, September 10, 2016Cleveland, Ohio, USA

Official fight result

Stipe Miocic won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:27

Style matchupStipe Miocic: Pressure fightervsAlistair Overeem: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Stipe Miocic wins(66.1%)

Actual result: Stipe Miocic wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Stipe Miocic at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stipe Miocic is a KO finisher (64% of wins). Alistair Overeem has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Alistair Overeem is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Stipe Miocic has lost 80% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Stipe Miocic
Red Corner
VS
Alistair Overeem
Blue Corner
-145
(59%)
Vegas Odds
+125
(44%)
1494
Elo
1493
43
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'4"
203.2 cm
Reach
203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stipe MiocicL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Daniel Cormier · Jul 18
W
KOvs Daniel Cormier · Aug 19
W
vs Daniel Cormier · Aug 20
L
KOvs Francis Ngannou · Mar 21
L
KOvs Jon Jones · Nov 24
latest
Alistair Overeem
oldest →
W
KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 19
L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 19
W
KOvs Walt Harris · May 20
W
KOvs Augusto Sakai · Sep 20
L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Feb 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stipe MiocicMetricAlistair Overeem
4.67
Strikes / min
3.67
4.01
Strikes absorbed / min
2.44
52%
Strike defense
57%
1.74
TDs / 15 min
1.42
65%
Takedown defense
73%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.66evenly matched on net striking+1.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1590 vs 1546Strikes51.5 vs 36.3Takedowns1.4 vs 0.3Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.8 vs 0.9
Stipe MiocicAlistair Overeem

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Stipe Miocic(10 fights)Alistair Overeem(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -6.0|Blue +6.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stipe MiocicTargetAlistair Overeem

By target zone

31
56% acc · 91%
Head
5
50% acc · 56%
3
60% acc · 9%
Body
3
50% acc · 33%
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 11%

By position

16
44% acc · 47%
Distance
7
50% acc · 78%
6
67% acc · 18%
Clinch
2
67% acc · 22%
12
80% acc · 35%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Stipe Miocic rounds
0
even
0
Alistair Overeem rounds
Round 1Stipe Miocic edged it
Sig. strikes34
Takedowns1
Control0:21
Knockdowns0
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:06Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
34 / 60
Sig Strikes
9 / 17
56%
Sig Str %
52%
34 / 60
Total Strikes
9 / 17
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:21
Ctrl Time
0:06

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Alistair Overeem9 / 179 / 170 / 01
1Stipe Miocic34 / 6034 / 601 / 10

Stipe Miocic

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights19

Alistair Overeem

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights20