Flyweight

3 Rounds

Jesus Aguilar won · SUB R1

Elo1406

Elo1503

Stewart NicollvsJesus AguilarUFC Prediction Result

UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Saturday, August 17, 2024Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Jesus Aguilar won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:39

Model Prediction: Jesus Aguilar wins(53.6%)

Actual result: Jesus Aguilar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stewart Nicoll enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jesus Aguilar has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jesus Aguilar has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Stewart Nicoll

Red Corner

Jesus Aguilar

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1406

Elo

1503

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'4"

165.1 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stewart NicollL3 streak

oldest →

vs Lucas Rocha · Oct 25

KOvs Alessandro Costa · Apr 26

DECvs Alden Coria · Jul 26

latest

Jesus Aguilar

oldest →

KOvs Shannon Ross · Jul 23

vs Mateus Mendonca · Feb 24

vs Rafael Estevam · Feb 25

vs Luis Gurule · Sep 25

vs Sumudaerji · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stewart NicollMetricJesus Aguilar

3.63

Strikes / min

2.54

5.84

Strikes absorbed / min

2.29

49%

Strike defense

61%

1.63

TDs / 15 min

1.52

28%

Takedown defense

45%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.21Δ 2.46 — meaningful gap+0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stewart NicollJesus Aguilar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stewart Nicoll(4 fights)Jesus Aguilar(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -96.2|Blue +96.2

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Grappler Score

Red +49.4|Blue -49.4

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stewart NicollTargetJesus Aguilar

By target zone

33% acc · 50%

Head

60% acc · 100%

100% acc · 25%

Body

67% acc · 25%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 25%

Distance

60% acc · 100%

Clinch

46% acc · 75%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stewart Nicoll rounds

even

Jesus Aguilar rounds

Round 1Stewart Nicoll edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control2:04

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 17

Sig Strikes

3 / 5

47%

Sig Str %

60%

15 / 29

Total Strikes

3 / 5

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:04

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jesus Aguilar	3 / 5	3 / 5	0 / 0	1
1	Stewart Nicoll	8 / 17	15 / 29	1 / 1	0

Stewart Nicoll

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights4

Jesus Aguilar

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights7