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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Paul Felder won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1492

Elo1392

Stevie RayvsPaul FelderUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · Sunday, July 16, 2017Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Paul Felder won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:57

Style matchupStevie Ray: Well-roundedvsPaul Felder: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Stevie Ray wins(60.6%)

Actual result: Paul Felder wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Stevie Ray at -185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Stevie Ray (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Stevie Ray

Red Corner

Paul Felder

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1492

Elo

1392

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stevie Ray

oldest →

vs Joe Lauzon · Apr 17

vs Kajan Johnson · Mar 18

vs Jessin Ayari · Oct 18

KOvs Leonardo Santos · Jun 19

vs Michael Johnson · Oct 19

latest

Paul FelderL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mike Perry · Jul 18

vs James Vick · Feb 19

vs Edson Barboza · Sep 19

vs Dan Hooker · Feb 20

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Nov 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stevie RayMetricPaul Felder

3.73

Strikes / min

3.70

2.93

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

54%

Strike defense

48%

0.75

TDs / 15 min

0.29

55%

Takedown defense

64%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stevie RayPaul Felder

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stevie Ray(10 fights)Paul Felder(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +100.2|Blue -100.2

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -62.0|Blue +62.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stevie RayTargetPaul Felder

By target zone

33% acc · 40%

Head

58% acc · 61%

100% acc · 40%

Body

78% acc · 30%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

50% acc · 40%

Distance

57% acc · 17%

60% acc · 60%

Clinch

70% acc · 30%

Ground

67% acc · 52%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stevie Ray rounds

even

Paul Felder rounds

Round 1Paul Felder edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control1:45

Knockdowns0

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:05Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 9

Sig Strikes

23 / 35

55%

Sig Str %

65%

11 / 15

Total Strikes

28 / 41

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:45

Ctrl Time

1:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Paul Felder	23 / 35	28 / 41	0 / 0	0
1	Stevie Ray	5 / 9	11 / 15	0 / 1	0

Stevie Ray

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Paul Felder

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15