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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Stevie Ray won · U-DEC R3
Elo1492
Stevie Ray
Elo1490
Mickael Lebout

Stevie RayvsMickael LeboutUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka · Saturday, October 24, 2015Dublin, Leinster, Ireland

Official fight result

Stevie Ray won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Mickael Lebout wins(50.8%)

Actual result: Stevie Ray wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mickael Lebout at +425 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Stevie Ray (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Stevie Ray
Red Corner
VS
Mickael Lebout
Blue Corner
-550
(85%)
Vegas Odds
+425
(19%)
1492
Elo
1490
36
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stevie Ray
oldest →
L
KOvs Paul Felder · Jul 17
L
vs Kajan Johnson · Mar 18
W
vs Jessin Ayari · Oct 18
L
KOvs Leonardo Santos · Jun 19
W
vs Michael Johnson · Oct 19
latest
Mickael Lebout
oldest →
L
vs Sergio Moraes · Apr 15
W
vs Teemu Packalen · Jul 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stevie RayMetricMickael Lebout
3.73
Strikes / min
2.60
2.93
Strikes absorbed / min
2.98
54%
Strike defense
54%
0.75
TDs / 15 min
0.00
55%
Takedown defense
60%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.80Δ 1.18 — meaningful gap-0.38

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1534 vs 1502Strikes25.0 vs 45.0Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 0.1
Stevie RayMickael Lebout

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Stevie Ray(10 fights)Mickael Lebout(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Recent Form
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stevie RayTargetMickael Lebout

By target zone

26
22% acc · 54%
Head
20
16% acc · 74%
7
50% acc · 15%
Body
1
13% acc · 4%
15
75% acc · 31%
Leg
6
86% acc · 22%

By position

46
31% acc · 96%
Distance
27
20% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 2%
Clinch
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 2%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Stevie Ray rounds
0
even
0
Mickael Lebout rounds
Round 1Stevie Ray edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:00
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Stevie Ray edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:06
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:26Control
Round 3Stevie Ray edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns1
Control0:40
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:20Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
48 / 150
Sig Strikes
27 / 139
31.7%
Sig Str %
19.3%
53 / 156
Total Strikes
29 / 142
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 3
100%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:46
Ctrl Time
0:46

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Mickael Lebout5 / 505 / 500 / 00
1Stevie Ray18 / 5018 / 500 / 00
2Mickael Lebout12 / 4312 / 430 / 20
2Stevie Ray18 / 5218 / 520 / 00
3Mickael Lebout10 / 4612 / 490 / 10
3Stevie Ray12 / 4817 / 541 / 10

Stevie Ray

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights11

Mickael Lebout

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights3