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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Leonardo Santos won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1492
Stevie Ray
Elo1433

Stevie RayvsLeonardo SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · Saturday, June 1, 2019Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Leonardo Santos won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:17

Style matchupStevie Ray: Well-roundedvsLeonardo Santos: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Leonardo Santos wins(65.1%)

Actual result: Leonardo Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Leonardo Santos at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Leonardo Santos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Leonardo Santos has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Stevie Ray (53.5%).
  • Leonardo Santos has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Stevie Ray
Red Corner
VS
Leonardo Santos
Blue Corner
+135
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-155
(61%)
1492
Elo
1433
36
Age
46
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'0"
177.8 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stevie RayW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Joe Lauzon · Apr 17
L
KOvs Paul Felder · Jul 17
L
vs Kajan Johnson · Mar 18
W
vs Jessin Ayari · Oct 18
W
vs Michael Johnson · Oct 19
latest
Leonardo SantosL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Adriano Martins · Oct 16
W
vs Roman Bogatov · Jul 20
L
KOvs Grant Dawson · Mar 21
L
SUBvs Clay Guida · Dec 21
L
vs Jared Gordon · Aug 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stevie RayMetricLeonardo Santos
3.73
Strikes / min
2.82
2.93
Strikes absorbed / min
3.40
54%
Strike defense
54%
0.75
TDs / 15 min
0.88
55%
Takedown defense
86%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.80Δ 1.38 — meaningful gap-0.58

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1544 vs 1587Strikes40.2 vs 25.2Takedowns0.6 vs 0.8Sub Atts0.56 vs 0.33Form0.3 vs 1.0
Stevie RayLeonardo Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Stevie Ray(10 fights)Leonardo Santos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +58.8|Blue -58.8
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -749.0|Blue +749.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stevie RayTargetLeonardo Santos

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
4
80% acc · 33%
0
0% acc
Body
6
67% acc · 50%
2
100% acc · 100%
Leg
2
100% acc · 17%

By position

2
18% acc · 100%
Distance
12
75% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Stevie Ray rounds
0
even
1
Leonardo Santos rounds
Round 1Leonardo Santos edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
2 / 11
Sig Strikes
12 / 16
18%
Sig Str %
75%
2 / 11
Total Strikes
12 / 16
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:01

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Leonardo Santos12 / 1612 / 160 / 00
1Stevie Ray2 / 112 / 110 / 00

Stevie Ray

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights11

Leonardo Santos

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights10