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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Stevie Ray won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1492
Stevie Ray
Elo1490

Stevie RayvsLeonardo MafraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Leites · Saturday, July 18, 2015Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Stevie Ray won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:30

Style matchupStevie Ray: Well-roundedvsLeonardo Mafra: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Leonardo Mafra wins(51.0%)

Actual result: Stevie Ray wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Leonardo Mafra at +185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stevie Ray has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Stevie Ray (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Stevie Ray
Red Corner
VS
Leonardo Mafra
Blue Corner
-225
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+185
(35%)
1492
Elo
1490
36
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stevie Ray
oldest →
L
KOvs Paul Felder · Jul 17
L
vs Kajan Johnson · Mar 18
W
vs Jessin Ayari · Oct 18
L
KOvs Leonardo Santos · Jun 19
W
vs Michael Johnson · Oct 19
latest
Leonardo Mafra
oldest →
L
KOvs Thiago Perpetuo · Jun 12
L
SUBvs Rick Story · Jul 14
W
vs Cain Carrizosa · Mar 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stevie RayMetricLeonardo Mafra
3.73
Strikes / min
4.55
2.93
Strikes absorbed / min
4.38
54%
Strike defense
43%
0.75
TDs / 15 min
2.12
55%
Takedown defense
69%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.80evenly matched on net striking+0.17

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1518 vs 1485Strikes31.0 vs 46.0Takedowns0.0 vs 1.7Sub Atts2.00 vs 0.33Form1.0 vs 0.3
Stevie RayLeonardo Mafra

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Stevie Ray(10 fights)Leonardo Mafra(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Recent Form
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stevie RayTargetLeonardo Mafra

By target zone

16
46% acc · 84%
Head
8
42% acc · 35%
1
25% acc · 5%
Body
3
43% acc · 13%
2
100% acc · 11%
Leg
12
86% acc · 52%

By position

15
43% acc · 79%
Distance
22
59% acc · 96%
1
50% acc · 5%
Clinch
1
33% acc · 4%
3
75% acc · 16%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Stevie Ray rounds
0
even
0
Leonardo Mafra rounds
Round 1Stevie Ray edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
19 / 41
Sig Strikes
23 / 40
46%
Sig Str %
57%
19 / 41
Total Strikes
24 / 41
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Leonardo Mafra23 / 4024 / 410 / 00
1Stevie Ray19 / 4119 / 410 / 00

Stevie Ray

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights11

Leonardo Mafra

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights4