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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Kajan Johnson won · S-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1368

Stevie RayvsKajan JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · Saturday, March 17, 2018London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Kajan Johnson won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Kajan Johnson wins(54.8%)

Actual result: Kajan Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kajan Johnson at +175 American odds

+$175 profit

$275 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kajan Johnson has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Stevie Ray (53.5%).
Kajan Johnson has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Stevie Ray

Red Corner

Kajan Johnson

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1492

Elo

1368

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stevie Ray

oldest →

vs Joe Lauzon · Apr 17

KOvs Paul Felder · Jul 17

vs Jessin Ayari · Oct 18

KOvs Leonardo Santos · Jun 19

vs Michael Johnson · Oct 19

latest

Kajan JohnsonL2 streak

oldest →

DECvs Zhang Lipeng · May 15

vs Naoyuki Kotani · Sep 15

KOvs Adriano Martins · Sep 17

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jul 18

vs Rustam Khabilov · Sep 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stevie RayMetricKajan Johnson

3.73

Strikes / min

2.47

2.93

Strikes absorbed / min

1.59

54%

Strike defense

64%

0.75

TDs / 15 min

1.54

55%

Takedown defense

62%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80evenly matched on net striking+0.88

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stevie RayKajan Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stevie Ray(10 fights)Kajan Johnson(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +124.3|Blue -124.3

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +55.0|Blue -55.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stevie RayTargetKajan Johnson

By target zone

35% acc · 75%

Head

32% acc · 21%

33% acc · 4%

Body

81% acc · 39%

71% acc · 21%

Leg

81% acc · 39%

By position

31% acc · 67%

Distance

57% acc · 73%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

0% acc

78% acc · 29%

Ground

82% acc · 27%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stevie Ray rounds

even

Kajan Johnson rounds

Round 1Kajan Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Kajan Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns2

Control0:50

11Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:14Control

Round 3Stevie Ray edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control0:50

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:58Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 62

Sig Strikes

33 / 54

34%

Sig Str %

60%

37 / 78

Total Strikes

37 / 58

3 / 4

TDs

2 / 4

75%

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

1:40

Ctrl Time

4:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kajan Johnson	14 / 21	14 / 21	0 / 0	0
1	Stevie Ray	4 / 17	4 / 17	0 / 0	0
2	Kajan Johnson	11 / 17	11 / 17	2 / 3	0
2	Stevie Ray	4 / 15	10 / 24	2 / 2	1
3	Kajan Johnson	8 / 16	12 / 20	0 / 1	0
3	Stevie Ray	16 / 30	23 / 37	1 / 2	0

Stevie Ray

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Kajan Johnson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights7