Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Lightweight
3 Rounds
Stevie Ray won · U-DEC R3
Elo1492
Stevie Ray
Elo1390

Stevie RayvsJessin AyariUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith · Saturday, October 27, 2018Moncton, New Brunswick, Canada

Official fight result

Stevie Ray won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Stevie Ray wins(57.9%)

Actual result: Stevie Ray wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Stevie Ray at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Stevie Ray (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Stevie Ray
Red Corner
VS
Jessin Ayari
Blue Corner
-160
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+140
(42%)
1492
Elo
1390
36
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'0"
177.8 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stevie Ray
oldest →
W
vs Joe Lauzon · Apr 17
L
KOvs Paul Felder · Jul 17
L
vs Kajan Johnson · Mar 18
L
KOvs Leonardo Santos · Jun 19
W
vs Michael Johnson · Oct 19
latest
Jessin AyariL2 streak
oldest →
W
DECvs Jimmy Wallhead · Sep 16
L
vs Darren Till · May 17
L
KOvs Luigi Vendramini · Oct 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stevie RayMetricJessin Ayari
3.73
Strikes / min
3.53
2.93
Strikes absorbed / min
3.59
54%
Strike defense
58%
0.75
TDs / 15 min
0.00
55%
Takedown defense
50%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.80evenly matched on net striking-0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1527 vs 1500Strikes35.9 vs 49.0Takedowns0.6 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.63 vs 0.50Form-0.4 vs -0.3
Stevie RayJessin Ayari

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Stevie Ray(10 fights)Jessin Ayari(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +102.3|Blue -102.3
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -293.0|Blue +293.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stevie RayTargetJessin Ayari

By target zone

23
21% acc · 31%
Head
49
40% acc · 78%
6
55% acc · 8%
Body
7
78% acc · 11%
46
82% acc · 61%
Leg
7
88% acc · 11%

By position

72
42% acc · 96%
Distance
60
46% acc · 95%
3
100% acc · 4%
Clinch
3
43% acc · 5%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Stevie Ray rounds
1
even
0
Jessin Ayari rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:00
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
Round 2Stevie Ray edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control0:00
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 3Stevie Ray edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:00
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
75 / 174
Sig Strikes
63 / 138
43.7%
Sig Str %
47%
75 / 174
Total Strikes
64 / 139
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:06

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jessin Ayari17 / 3017 / 300 / 00
1Stevie Ray19 / 4119 / 410 / 00
2Jessin Ayari22 / 5022 / 500 / 00
2Stevie Ray30 / 6130 / 610 / 00
3Jessin Ayari24 / 5825 / 590 / 00
3Stevie Ray26 / 7226 / 720 / 00

Stevie Ray

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights11

Jessin Ayari

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4