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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Steven Siler won · U-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1490

Steven SilervsKurt HolobaughUFC Prediction Result

UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · Saturday, April 27, 2013Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Steven Siler won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSteven Siler: Well-roundedvsKurt Holobaugh: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Steven Siler wins(64.3%)

Actual result: Steven Siler wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Steven Siler at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Steven Siler enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Steven Siler has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Steven Siler

Red Corner

Kurt Holobaugh

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1353

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Steven SilerL3 streak

oldest →

vs Darren Elkins · Nov 12

KOvs Mike Brown · Aug 13

vs Dennis Bermudez · Nov 13

KOvs Rony Jason · Mar 14

vs Noad Lahat · Jul 14

latest

Kurt HolobaughL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Austin Hubbard · Aug 23

vs Trey Ogden · Mar 24

vs Kaynan Kruschewsky · Jul 24

vs Alexander Hernandez · Mar 25

SUBvs Jordan Leavitt · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Steven SilerMetricKurt Holobaugh

3.21

Strikes / min

4.58

2.96

Strikes absorbed / min

4.24

54%

Strike defense

49%

0.47

TDs / 15 min

0.65

55%

Takedown defense

38%

1.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.25evenly matched on net striking+0.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Steven SilerKurt Holobaugh

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Steven Siler(9 fights)Kurt Holobaugh(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -136.6|Blue +136.6

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -46.8|Blue +46.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Steven SilerTargetKurt Holobaugh

By target zone

39% acc · 72%

Head

22% acc · 32%

81% acc · 26%

Body

90% acc · 44%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

71% acc · 24%

By position

42% acc · 44%

Distance

25% acc · 37%

47% acc · 30%

Clinch

84% acc · 39%

52% acc · 26%

Ground

77% acc · 24%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Steven Siler rounds

even

Kurt Holobaugh rounds

Round 1Steven Siler edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control3:16

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

Round 2Kurt Holobaugh edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:38

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:14Control

Round 3Steven Siler edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control2:53

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 109

Sig Strikes

41 / 92

44.3%

Sig Str %

43.3%

128 / 201

Total Strikes

133 / 196

1 / 4

TDs

1 / 2

50%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

6:47

Ctrl Time

4:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kurt Holobaugh	9 / 25	37 / 56	0 / 0	0
1	Steven Siler	15 / 34	54 / 83	1 / 1	1
2	Kurt Holobaugh	13 / 33	44 / 66	1 / 1	2
2	Steven Siler	10 / 27	20 / 38	0 / 3	0
3	Kurt Holobaugh	19 / 34	52 / 74	0 / 1	0
3	Steven Siler	25 / 48	54 / 80	0 / 0	1

Steven Siler

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"