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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Darren Elkins won · U-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1499

Steven SilervsDarren ElkinsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · Saturday, November 17, 2012Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Darren Elkins won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSteven Siler: Well-roundedvsDarren Elkins: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Steven Siler wins(63.3%)

Actual result: Darren Elkins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Steven Siler at +100 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Steven Siler enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Steven Siler

Red Corner

Darren Elkins

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1353

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Steven SilerL3 streak

oldest →

vs Kurt Holobaugh · Apr 13

KOvs Mike Brown · Aug 13

vs Dennis Bermudez · Nov 13

KOvs Rony Jason · Mar 14

vs Noad Lahat · Jul 14

latest

Darren Elkins

oldest →

vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22

vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22

SUBvs TJ Brown · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24

KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Steven SilerMetricDarren Elkins

3.21

Strikes / min

3.40

2.96

Strikes absorbed / min

3.34

54%

Strike defense

51%

0.47

TDs / 15 min

2.87

55%

Takedown defense

56%

1.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.25evenly matched on net striking+0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Steven SilerDarren Elkins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Steven Siler(9 fights)Darren Elkins(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -146.1|Blue +146.1

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +2.5|Blue -2.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -27.0|Blue +27.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Steven SilerTargetDarren Elkins

By target zone

20% acc · 53%

Head

47% acc · 82%

100% acc · 27%

Body

42% acc · 11%

75% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

24% acc · 60%

Distance

29% acc · 23%

50% acc · 33%

Clinch

69% acc · 25%

100% acc · 7%

Ground

56% acc · 52%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Steven Siler rounds

even

Darren Elkins rounds

Round 1Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:06

20Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:53Control

Round 2Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:42Control

Round 3Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:08

17Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:44Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 48

Sig Strikes

44 / 91

33%

Sig Str %

47%

61 / 96

Total Strikes

103 / 159

0 / 0

TDs

6 / 7

—

TD %

91.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

11:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Darren Elkins	20 / 39	36 / 59	2 / 2	2
1	Steven Siler	4 / 14	16 / 26	0 / 0	0
2	Darren Elkins	7 / 16	45 / 58	1 / 1	4
2	Steven Siler	3 / 7	24 / 30	0 / 0	0
3	Darren Elkins	17 / 36	22 / 42	3 / 4	0
3	Steven Siler	8 / 27	21 / 40	0 / 0	1

Steven Siler

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights9

Darren Elkins

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights30