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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Lucas Alexander won · U-DEC R3

Elo1455

Elo1485

Steven PetersonvsLucas AlexanderUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Saturday, March 25, 2023San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Lucas Alexander won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSteven Peterson: Pressure fightervsLucas Alexander: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Lucas Alexander wins(52.8%)

Actual result: Lucas Alexander wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lucas Alexander at +138 American odds

+$138 profit

$238 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lucas Alexander enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Steven Peterson

Red Corner

Lucas Alexander

Blue Corner

-164

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+138

(42%)

1455

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Steven Peterson

oldest →

vs Luis Pena · Mar 19

vs Alex Caceres · Jul 19

KOvs Martin Bravo · Sep 19

vs Chase Hooper · Jun 21

vs Julian Erosa · Feb 22

latest

Lucas AlexanderL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Joanderson Brito · Oct 22

KOvs Jeka Saragih · Nov 23

KOvs Bogdan Grad · Feb 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Steven PetersonMetricLucas Alexander

4.76

Strikes / min

4.69

5.94

Strikes absorbed / min

2.87

53%

Strike defense

56%

1.42

TDs / 15 min

0.00

64%

Takedown defense

60%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.18Δ 3.00 — meaningful gap+1.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Steven PetersonLucas Alexander

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Steven Peterson(8 fights)Lucas Alexander(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -29.7|Blue +29.7

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +252.0|Blue -252.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Steven PetersonTargetLucas Alexander

By target zone

12% acc · 31%

Head

40% acc · 51%

50% acc · 35%

Body

74% acc · 24%

56% acc · 35%

Leg

96% acc · 26%

By position

25% acc · 96%

Distance

55% acc · 92%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

Ground

40% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Steven Peterson rounds

even

Lucas Alexander rounds

Round 1Lucas Alexander edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 2Lucas Alexander edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:03

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 3Lucas Alexander edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:28

Knockdowns0

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:42Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 101

Sig Strikes

85 / 158

25.3%

Sig Str %

53.7%

27 / 102

Total Strikes

86 / 159

0 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:31

Ctrl Time

0:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Lucas Alexander	24 / 41	24 / 41	0 / 0
1	Steven Peterson	11 / 34	11 / 34	0 / 0
2	Lucas Alexander	27 / 54	27 / 54	0 / 0
2	Steven Peterson	8 / 31	8 / 31	0 / 2
3	Lucas Alexander	34 / 63	35 / 64	0 / 0
3	Steven Peterson	7 / 36	8 / 37	0 / 2

Steven Peterson

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights8

Lucas Alexander

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4