Welterweight

3 Rounds

Tony Sims won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1356

Steve MontgomeryvsTony SimsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · Saturday, June 27, 2015Hollywood, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Tony Sims won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:43

Model Prediction: Steve Montgomery wins(50.2%)

Actual result: Tony Sims wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Steve Montgomery at +100 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tony Sims is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Steve Montgomery has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Tony Sims has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Steve Montgomery has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Steve Montgomery

Red Corner

Tony Sims

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1356

Elo

1356

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'4"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Steve Montgomery

oldest →

vs Daniel Kelly · Nov 15

latest

Tony SimsL2 streak

oldest →

vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Aug 15

SUBvs Abel Trujillo · Jan 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Steve MontgomeryMetricTony Sims

4.85

Strikes / min

1.81

4.12

Strikes absorbed / min

0.76

47%

Strike defense

65%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.71

64%

Takedown defense

50%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.73evenly matched on net striking+1.05

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Steve Montgomery(2 fights)Tony Sims(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Steve MontgomeryTargetTony Sims

By target zone

27% acc · 78%

Head

47% acc · 80%

100% acc · 22%

Body

100% acc · 20%

Leg

By position

33% acc · 89%

Distance

46% acc · 60%

25% acc · 11%

Clinch

33% acc · 10%

Ground

100% acc · 30%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Steve Montgomery rounds

even

Tony Sims rounds

Round 1Tony Sims edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 28

Sig Strikes

10 / 19

32%

Sig Str %

52%

13 / 32

Total Strikes

12 / 21

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tony Sims	10 / 19	12 / 21	0 / 1	0
1	Steve Montgomery	9 / 28	13 / 32	0 / 0	0

Steve Montgomery

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach—

Fights2

Tony Sims

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3