Lightweight

3 Rounds

Waylon Lowe won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Steve LopezvsWaylon LoweUFC Prediction Result

UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · Saturday, September 25, 2010Indianapolis, Indiana, USA

Official fight result

Waylon Lowe won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Steve Lopez wins(71.2%)

Actual result: Waylon Lowe wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Steve Lopez at +140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Waylon Lowe has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Waylon Lowe (53.5%).
Steve Lopez has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Steve Lopez

Red Corner

Waylon Lowe

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

165 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Steve LopezNo prior UFC fights on record.

Waylon Lowe

oldest →

KOvs Melvin Guillard · May 10

vs Willamy Freire · Jan 11

SUBvs Nik Lentz · Mar 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Steve LopezMetricWaylon Lowe

1.39

Strikes / min

1.88

2.69

Strikes absorbed / min

2.40

62%

Strike defense

53%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

4.47

37%

Takedown defense

83%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.30evenly matched on net striking-0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Steve LopezWaylon Lowe

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Steve Lopez(1 fights)Waylon Lowe(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Steve LopezTargetWaylon Lowe

By target zone

13% acc · 26%

Head

42% acc · 96%

60% acc · 13%

Body

50% acc · 4%

78% acc · 61%

Leg

By position

32% acc · 91%

Distance

36% acc · 62%

0% acc

Clinch

40% acc · 9%

Ground

59% acc · 38%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Steve Lopez rounds

even

Waylon Lowe rounds

Round 1Waylon Lowe edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:31Control

Round 2Waylon Lowe edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:51Control

Round 3Waylon Lowe edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:30Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 71

Sig Strikes

26 / 61

32%

Sig Str %

42.3%

68 / 117

Total Strikes

74 / 118

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 7

—

TD %

72%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

6:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Waylon Lowe	5 / 12	19 / 27	2 / 3
1	Steve Lopez	12 / 26	15 / 29	0 / 0
2	Waylon Lowe	9 / 26	21 / 40	1 / 2
2	Steve Lopez	7 / 31	45 / 70	0 / 0
3	Waylon Lowe	12 / 23	34 / 51	2 / 2
3	Steve Lopez	4 / 14	8 / 18	0 / 0

Steve Lopez

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach—

Fights1

Waylon Lowe

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach—

Fights4