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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Steve Garcia won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1534

Elo1564

Steve GarciavsMelquizael CostaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Saturday, December 9, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Steve Garcia won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:01

Style matchupSteve Garcia: Elusive strikervsMelquizael Costa: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Steve Garcia wins(61.6%)

Actual result: Steve Garcia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Steve Garcia at +500 American odds

+$500 profit

$600 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Steve Garcia has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Steve Garcia has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Steve Garcia

Red Corner

Melquizael Costa

Blue Corner

+500

(17%)

Vegas Odds

-810

(89%)

1534

Elo

1564

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Steve Garcia

oldest →

KOvs SeungWoo Choi · Jul 24

KOvs Kyle Nelson · Sep 24

vs Calvin Kattar · Jul 25

KOvs David Onama · Nov 25

KOvs Diego Lopes · Jun 26

latest

Melquizael Costa

oldest →

vs Christian Rodriguez · Mar 25

vs Julian Erosa · May 25

KOvs Morgan Charriere · Dec 25

KOvs Dan Ige · Feb 26

DECvs Arnold Allen · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Steve GarciaMetricMelquizael Costa

5.39

Strikes / min

4.38

2.12

Strikes absorbed / min

2.97

59%

Strike defense

54%

0.86

TDs / 15 min

2.00

88%

Takedown defense

58%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+3.27Δ 1.86 — meaningful gap+1.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Steve GarciaMelquizael Costa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Steve Garcia(10 fights)Melquizael Costa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -29.7|Blue +29.7

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Steve GarciaTargetMelquizael Costa

By target zone

58% acc · 90%

Head

20% acc · 17%

67% acc · 7%

Body

100% acc · 33%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

40% acc · 14%

Distance

67% acc · 33%

38% acc · 10%

Clinch

57% acc · 67%

71% acc · 76%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Steve Garcia rounds

even

Melquizael Costa rounds

Round 1Melquizael Costa edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:41Control

Round 2Steve Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:46

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 49

Sig Strikes

6 / 10

50.5%

Sig Str %

52%

41 / 66

Total Strikes

20 / 25

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 10

—

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

0:46

Ctrl Time

4:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Melquizael Costa	5 / 7	19 / 22	2 / 9	0
1	Steve Garcia	4 / 11	12 / 23	0 / 0	0
2	Melquizael Costa	1 / 3	1 / 3	0 / 1	0
2	Steve Garcia	25 / 38	29 / 43	0 / 0	1

Steve Garcia

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10

Melquizael Costa

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9