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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Steve Garcia won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1534

Elo1496

Steve GarciavsKyle NelsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Saturday, September 7, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Steve Garcia won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:59

Style matchupSteve Garcia: Elusive strikervsKyle Nelson: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Steve Garcia wins(77.4%)

Actual result: Steve Garcia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Steve Garcia is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Kyle Nelson has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Steve Garcia has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Nelson (54.1%).
Steve Garcia has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Steve Garcia

Red Corner

Kyle Nelson

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1534

Elo

1496

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

6'0"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Steve Garcia

oldest →

KOvs Melquizael Costa · Dec 23

KOvs SeungWoo Choi · Jul 24

vs Calvin Kattar · Jul 25

KOvs David Onama · Nov 25

KOvs Diego Lopes · Jun 26

latest

Kyle Nelson

oldest →

vs Blake Bilder · Jun 23

vs Fernando Padilla · Sep 23

KOvs Bill Algeo · Mar 24

vs Matt Frevola · Oct 25

KOvs Terrance McKinney · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Steve GarciaMetricKyle Nelson

5.39

Strikes / min

3.60

2.12

Strikes absorbed / min

4.58

59%

Strike defense

53%

0.86

TDs / 15 min

1.18

88%

Takedown defense

66%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+3.27Δ 4.25 — meaningful gap-0.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Steve GarciaKyle Nelson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Steve Garcia(10 fights)Kyle Nelson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +37.8|Blue -37.8

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Steve GarciaTargetKyle Nelson

By target zone

57% acc · 91%

Head

0% acc

100% acc · 5%

Body

100% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 100%

By position

67% acc · 9%

Distance

50% acc · 100%

Clinch

59% acc · 91%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Steve Garcia rounds

even

Kyle Nelson rounds

Round 1Steve Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control1:36

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 37

Sig Strikes

1 / 2

59%

Sig Str %

50%

39 / 62

Total Strikes

31 / 36

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:36

Ctrl Time

2:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kyle Nelson	1 / 2	31 / 36	0 / 0	0
1	Steve Garcia	22 / 37	39 / 62	0 / 0	0

Steve Garcia

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10

Kyle Nelson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11