← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

5 Rounds

Steve Garcia won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1534

Elo1513

Steve GarciavsDavid OnamaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Saturday, November 1, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Steve Garcia won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:34

Style matchupSteve Garcia: Elusive strikervsDavid Onama: Pressure fighter

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Steve Garcia wins(56.0%)

Actual result: Steve Garcia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Steve Garcia at -138 American odds

+$72 profit

$172 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

David Onama enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Steve Garcia has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Steve Garcia (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Steve Garcia

Red Corner

David Onama

Blue Corner

-138

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+118

(46%)

1534

Elo

1513

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Steve Garcia

oldest →

KOvs Melquizael Costa · Dec 23

KOvs SeungWoo Choi · Jul 24

KOvs Kyle Nelson · Sep 24

vs Calvin Kattar · Jul 25

KOvs Diego Lopes · Jun 26

latest

David OnamaW4 streak

oldest →

vs Nate Landwehr · Aug 22

KOvs Gabriel Santos · Jun 23

vs Jonathan Pearce · Apr 24

vs Roberto Romero · Nov 24

vs Giga Chikadze · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Steve GarciaMetricDavid Onama

5.39

Strikes / min

5.07

2.12

Strikes absorbed / min

4.89

59%

Strike defense

51%

0.86

TDs / 15 min

1.05

88%

Takedown defense

52%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+3.27Δ 3.09 — meaningful gap+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Steve GarciaDavid Onama

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Steve Garcia(10 fights)David Onama(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +21.3|Blue -21.3

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Steve GarciaTargetDavid Onama

By target zone

50% acc · 85%

Head

7% acc · 50%

83% acc · 15%

Body

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

50% acc · 79%

Distance

13% acc · 100%

71% acc · 15%

Clinch

67% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Steve Garcia rounds

even

David Onama rounds

Round 1Steve Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 62

Sig Strikes

2 / 16

53%

Sig Str %

12%

43 / 72

Total Strikes

2 / 16

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	David Onama	2 / 16	2 / 16	0 / 0	0
1	Steve Garcia	33 / 62	43 / 72	0 / 0	0

Steve Garcia

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10

David Onama

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9