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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Steve Garcia won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1534

Elo1431

Steve GarciavsCharlie OntiverosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, October 9, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Steve Garcia won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:51

Model Prediction: Steve Garcia wins(62.7%)

Actual result: Steve Garcia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Steve Garcia at -310 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Steve Garcia is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Charlie Ontiveros has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Steve Garcia has 28pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Steve Garcia has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Charlie Ontiveros (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Steve Garcia

Red Corner

Charlie Ontiveros

Blue Corner

-310

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1534

Elo

1431

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

6'0"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Steve Garcia

oldest →

KOvs SeungWoo Choi · Jul 24

KOvs Kyle Nelson · Sep 24

vs Calvin Kattar · Jul 25

KOvs David Onama · Nov 25

KOvs Diego Lopes · Jun 26

latest

Charlie OntiverosL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Oct 20

KOvs Gabriel Benitez · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Steve GarciaMetricCharlie Ontiveros

5.39

Strikes / min

1.89

2.12

Strikes absorbed / min

5.86

59%

Strike defense

31%

0.86

TDs / 15 min

0.00

88%

Takedown defense

30%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+3.27Δ 7.24 — meaningful gap-3.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Steve GarciaCharlie Ontiveros

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Steve Garcia(10 fights)Charlie Ontiveros(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +102.7|Blue -102.7

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +245.0|Blue -245.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Steve GarciaTargetCharlie Ontiveros

By target zone

67% acc · 88%

Head

32% acc · 100%

100% acc · 6%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 6%

Leg

By position

55% acc · 18%

Distance

25% acc · 57%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 29%

73% acc · 79%

Ground

20% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Steve Garcia rounds

even

Charlie Ontiveros rounds

Round 1Steve Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control4:24

Knockdowns0

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

2Knockdowns

Round 2Steve Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control1:31

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 49

Sig Strikes

7 / 23

69%

Sig Str %

31%

70 / 87

Total Strikes

15 / 34

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

75%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:55

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Charlie Ontiveros	5 / 17	9 / 23	0 / 0
1	Steve Garcia	14 / 24	43 / 55	2 / 4
2	Charlie Ontiveros	2 / 6	6 / 11	0 / 0
2	Steve Garcia	20 / 25	27 / 32	1 / 1

Steve Garcia

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10

Charlie Ontiveros

StanceSwitch

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3