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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Ramazan Temirov won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1498

Elo1547

Steve ErcegvsRamazan TemirovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · Saturday, July 25, 2026Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Ramazan Temirov won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:21

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Ramazan Temirov

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Ramazan Temirov at +108 American odds · hypothetical only

+$108 profit

$208 total returned

Style matchupSteve Erceg: Pressure fightervsRamazan Temirov: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ramazan Temirov is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Steve Erceg has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Ramazan Temirov has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Steve Erceg has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Steve Erceg

Red Corner

Ramazan Temirov

Blue Corner

-112

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-107

(52%)

1498

Elo

1547

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'4"

172.72 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Steve ErcegW2 streak

oldest →

vs Alexandre Pantoja · May 24

KOvs Kai Kara-France · Aug 24

vs Brandon Moreno · Mar 25

vs Ode Osbourne · Aug 25

DECvs Tim Elliott · May 26

latest

Ramazan TemirovW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs CJ Vergara · Oct 24

vs Charles Johnson · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Steve ErcegMetricRamazan Temirov

4.64

Strikes / min

4.37

4.07

Strikes absorbed / min

3.93

55%

Strike defense

59%

1.13

TDs / 15 min

0.84

67%

Takedown defense

100%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.57evenly matched on net striking+0.44

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Steve Erceg(9 fights)Ramazan Temirov(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -427.0|Blue +427.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Steve ErcegTargetRamazan Temirov

By target zone

24% acc · 82%

Head

45% acc · 93%

40% acc · 18%

Body

25% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

24% acc · 91%

Distance

42% acc · 93%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Steve Erceg rounds

even

Ramazan Temirov rounds

Round 1Ramazan Temirov edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:08

Knockdowns0

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 42

Sig Strikes

27 / 61

26%

Sig Str %

44%

11 / 42

Total Strikes

32 / 67

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ramazan Temirov	27 / 61	32 / 67	0 / 0	0
1	Steve Erceg	11 / 42	11 / 42	0 / 1	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Steve Erceg

Odds

-132

Market-implied probability

Ramazan Temirov 46%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Steve Erceg$176

Ramazan Temirov (model pick · research)$208

46% market-implied · model 51% (research) · vufc_v7_0_20260718_090638

🔒 Pick locked Jul 18, 2026, 9:29 AM UTC at +108 · never rewritten

Steve Erceg

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights9

Ramazan Temirov

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights3