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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Steve Erceg won · U-DEC R3

Elo1498

Elo1543

Steve ErcegvsAlessandro CostaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Saturday, November 11, 2023New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Steve Erceg won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSteve Erceg: Pressure fightervsAlessandro Costa: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Steve Erceg wins(66.6%)

Actual result: Steve Erceg wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Steve Erceg at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alessandro Costa enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Alessandro Costa is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Steve Erceg has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Alessandro Costa has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Steve Erceg

Red Corner

Alessandro Costa

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1498

Elo

1543

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'4"

172.72 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Steve Erceg

oldest →

KOvs Kai Kara-France · Aug 24

vs Brandon Moreno · Mar 25

vs Ode Osbourne · Aug 25

DECvs Tim Elliott · May 26

KOvs Ramazan Temirov · Jul 26

latest

Alessandro CostaW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kevin Borjas · May 24

KOvs Alden Coria · Sep 25

KOvs Stewart Nicoll · Apr 26

KOvs Matt Schnell · Jun 26

SUBvs Cody Durden · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Steve ErcegMetricAlessandro Costa

4.64

Strikes / min

3.73

4.07

Strikes absorbed / min

3.72

55%

Strike defense

56%

1.13

TDs / 15 min

0.79

67%

Takedown defense

86%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.57evenly matched on net striking+0.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Steve ErcegAlessandro Costa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Steve Erceg(9 fights)Alessandro Costa(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -45.7|Blue +45.7

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Steve ErcegTargetAlessandro Costa

By target zone

47% acc · 55%

Head

44% acc · 57%

83% acc · 34%

Body

82% acc · 26%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

90% acc · 17%

By position

47% acc · 58%

Distance

46% acc · 65%

93% acc · 35%

Clinch

90% acc · 35%

83% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Steve Erceg rounds

even

Alessandro Costa rounds

Round 1Steve Erceg edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:49

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control2:06

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:49Control

Round 3Steve Erceg edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control3:34

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

74 / 125

Sig Strikes

54 / 97

61%

Sig Str %

58%

104 / 162

Total Strikes

85 / 129

1 / 8

TDs

1 / 6

10%

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

6:29

Ctrl Time

1:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alessandro Costa	16 / 36	16 / 36	0 / 1	0
1	Steve Erceg	31 / 54	31 / 54	0 / 0	1
2	Alessandro Costa	24 / 42	33 / 51	1 / 3	0
2	Steve Erceg	24 / 45	37 / 60	0 / 3	0
3	Alessandro Costa	14 / 19	36 / 42	0 / 2	0
3	Steve Erceg	19 / 26	36 / 48	1 / 5	0

Steve Erceg

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights9

Alessandro Costa

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights8