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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Mike Massenzio won · U-DEC R3

Elo1351

Steve CantwellvsMike MassenzioUFC Prediction Result

UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3 · Saturday, October 8, 2011Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Mike Massenzio won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSteve Cantwell: Well-roundedvsMike Massenzio: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Mike Massenzio wins(59.7%)

Actual result: Mike Massenzio wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Massenzio at +145 American odds

+$145 profit

$245 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Massenzio enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Steve Cantwell has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mike Massenzio (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Steve Cantwell

Red Corner

Mike Massenzio

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1351

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Steve CantwellL2 streak

oldest →

vs Cyrille Diabate · Mar 11

vs Riki Fukuda · Feb 12

latest

Mike MassenzioL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brian Stann · Aug 10

vs Krzysztof Soszynski · Jun 11

SUBvs Rousimar Palhares · Jan 12

SUBvs Karlos Vemola · May 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Steve CantwellMetricMike Massenzio

3.63

Strikes / min

2.08

5.76

Strikes absorbed / min

3.59

55%

Strike defense

54%

0.65

TDs / 15 min

2.74

80%

Takedown defense

50%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.13evenly matched on net striking-1.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Steve CantwellMike Massenzio

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Steve Cantwell(3 fights)Mike Massenzio(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +2.3|Blue -2.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +100.0|Blue -100.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Steve CantwellTargetMike Massenzio

By target zone

19% acc · 38%

Head

45% acc · 88%

70% acc · 59%

Body

70% acc · 9%

29% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

26% acc · 68%

Distance

48% acc · 94%

83% acc · 18%

Clinch

45% acc · 6%

100% acc · 14%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Steve Cantwell rounds

even

Mike Massenzio rounds

Round 1Mike Massenzio edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:10

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Mike Massenzio edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:09Control

Round 3Mike Massenzio edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:19Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

56 / 164

Sig Strikes

78 / 164

36.7%

Sig Str %

46.7%

76 / 184

Total Strikes

80 / 167

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 11

—

TD %

6.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

3:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mike Massenzio	19 / 44	19 / 44	0 / 3	0
1	Steve Cantwell	14 / 69	15 / 70	0 / 0	0
2	Mike Massenzio	29 / 62	29 / 62	1 / 5	0
2	Steve Cantwell	20 / 54	26 / 60	0 / 0	0
3	Mike Massenzio	30 / 58	32 / 61	0 / 3	0
3	Steve Cantwell	22 / 41	35 / 54	0 / 0	1

Steve Cantwell

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights3

Mike Massenzio

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights5