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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Cyrille Diabate won · U-DEC R3

Elo1351

Elo1353

Steve CantwellvsCyrille DiabateUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann · Thursday, March 3, 2011Louisville, Kentucky, USA

Official fight result

Cyrille Diabate won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSteve Cantwell: Well-roundedvsCyrille Diabate: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Steve Cantwell wins(50.8%)

Actual result: Cyrille Diabate wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Steve Cantwell at -145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Steve Cantwell has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Cyrille Diabate (53.5%).
Cyrille Diabate has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Steve Cantwell

Red Corner

Cyrille Diabate

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1351

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'6"

190.5 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Steve CantwellL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mike Massenzio · Oct 11

vs Riki Fukuda · Feb 12

latest

Cyrille DiabateL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Anthony Perosh · Nov 11

vs Tom DeBlass · Apr 12

SUBvs Chad Griggs · Nov 12

KOvs Jimi Manuwa · Feb 13

SUBvs Ilir Latifi · Mar 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Steve CantwellMetricCyrille Diabate

3.63

Strikes / min

4.06

5.76

Strikes absorbed / min

1.78

55%

Strike defense

60%

0.65

TDs / 15 min

1.17

80%

Takedown defense

53%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.13Δ 4.41 — meaningful gap+2.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Steve CantwellCyrille Diabate

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Steve Cantwell(3 fights)Cyrille Diabate(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +49.2|Blue -49.2

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Steve CantwellTargetCyrille Diabate

By target zone

8% acc · 21%

Head

66% acc · 62%

57% acc · 46%

Body

91% acc · 21%

90% acc · 32%

Leg

90% acc · 18%

By position

25% acc · 89%

Distance

125

72% acc · 86%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

86% acc · 8%

50% acc · 4%

Ground

90% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Steve Cantwell rounds

even

Cyrille Diabate rounds

Round 1Cyrille Diabate edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control1:24

Knockdowns0

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Cyrille Diabate edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:01

54Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:25Control

Round 3Cyrille Diabate edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

58Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 105

Sig Strikes

146 / 198

24.7%

Sig Str %

73%

33 / 112

Total Strikes

170 / 225

1 / 7

TDs

1 / 1

11%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:25

Ctrl Time

1:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Cyrille Diabate	34 / 46	45 / 57	0 / 0
1	Steve Cantwell	7 / 29	11 / 34	1 / 3
2	Cyrille Diabate	54 / 73	65 / 87	1 / 1
2	Steve Cantwell	5 / 24	6 / 26	0 / 3
3	Cyrille Diabate	58 / 79	60 / 81	0 / 0
3	Steve Cantwell	16 / 52	16 / 52	0 / 1

Steve Cantwell

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights3

Cyrille Diabate

StanceSouthpaw

Height78.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights8