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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Stephen Thompson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1482

Elo1504

Stephen ThompsonvsVicente LuqueUFC Prediction Result

UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Saturday, November 2, 2019New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Stephen Thompson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupStephen Thompson: StrikervsVicente Luque: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Vicente Luque wins(69.4%)

Actual result: Stephen Thompson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vicente Luque at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Stephen Thompson

Red Corner

Vicente Luque

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1482

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stephen ThompsonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24

vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25

latest

Vicente Luque

oldest →

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Mar 24

SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Dec 24

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 25

vs Joel Alvarez · Oct 25

SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stephen ThompsonMetricVicente Luque

4.05

Strikes / min

4.80

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

5.24

54%

Strike defense

51%

0.23

TDs / 15 min

0.89

63%

Takedown defense

59%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.05Δ 1.49 — meaningful gap-0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stephen ThompsonVicente Luque

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stephen Thompson(10 fights)Vicente Luque(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -21.9|Blue +21.9

Recent Form

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stephen ThompsonTargetVicente Luque

By target zone

111

52% acc · 80%

Head

24% acc · 34%

91% acc · 15%

Body

50% acc · 12%

86% acc · 4%

Leg

84% acc · 55%

By position

126

56% acc · 91%

Distance

44% acc · 99%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

33% acc · 1%

75% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stephen Thompson rounds

even

Vicente Luque rounds

Round 1Vicente Luque edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Stephen Thompson edged it

Sig. strikes51

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Stephen Thompson edged it

Sig. strikes55

Takedowns0

Control0:11

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

138 / 242

Sig Strikes

77 / 175

58%

Sig Str %

41.7%

138 / 242

Total Strikes

77 / 175

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:11

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Vicente Luque	38 / 67	38 / 67	0 / 0
1	Stephen Thompson	32 / 50	32 / 50	0 / 0
2	Vicente Luque	25 / 61	25 / 61	0 / 0
2	Stephen Thompson	51 / 91	51 / 91	0 / 0
3	Vicente Luque	14 / 47	14 / 47	0 / 0
3	Stephen Thompson	55 / 101	55 / 101	0 / 0

Stephen Thompson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights21

Vicente Luque

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23