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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Stephen Thompson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1482

Elo1490

Stephen ThompsonvsNah-Shon BurrellUFC Prediction Result

UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2 · Saturday, May 25, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Stephen Thompson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Nah-Shon Burrell wins(72.0%)

Actual result: Stephen Thompson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nah-Shon Burrell at +160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Stephen Thompson

Red Corner

Nah-Shon Burrell

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1482

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stephen ThompsonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24

vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25

latest

Nah-Shon Burrell

oldest →

vs Yuri Villefort · Feb 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stephen ThompsonMetricNah-Shon Burrell

4.05

Strikes / min

4.83

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

3.45

54%

Strike defense

56%

0.23

TDs / 15 min

0.00

63%

Takedown defense

52%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.05evenly matched on net striking+1.38

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stephen ThompsonNah-Shon Burrell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stephen Thompson(10 fights)Nah-Shon Burrell(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -7.7|Blue +7.7

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +308.0|Blue -308.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stephen ThompsonTargetNah-Shon Burrell

By target zone

33% acc · 46%

Head

32% acc · 46%

80% acc · 43%

Body

76% acc · 52%

78% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

44% acc · 75%

Distance

32% acc · 43%

73% acc · 25%

Clinch

68% acc · 57%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stephen Thompson rounds

even

Nah-Shon Burrell rounds

Round 1Stephen Thompson edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control3:14

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 2Stephen Thompson edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control1:31

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 3Stephen Thompson edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns1

Control1:32

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

65 / 134

Sig Strikes

56 / 121

47.3%

Sig Str %

46.3%

87 / 158

Total Strikes

78 / 144

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:17

Ctrl Time

0:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nah-Shon Burrell	18 / 35	33 / 50	0 / 1
1	Stephen Thompson	15 / 32	27 / 45	1 / 2
2	Nah-Shon Burrell	15 / 34	19 / 38	0 / 0
2	Stephen Thompson	22 / 47	26 / 51	0 / 1
3	Nah-Shon Burrell	23 / 52	26 / 56	0 / 0
3	Stephen Thompson	28 / 55	34 / 62	1 / 1

Stephen Thompson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights21

Nah-Shon Burrell

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach—

Fights2