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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Stephen Thompson won · KO/TKO R4

Elo1482

Elo1510

Stephen ThompsonvsKevin HollandUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · Saturday, December 3, 2022Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Stephen Thompson won

KO/TKO · Round 4 · 5:00

Style matchupStephen Thompson: StrikervsKevin Holland: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Kevin Holland wins(64.4%)

Actual result: Stephen Thompson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Holland at -170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stephen Thompson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Kevin Holland has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Stephen Thompson

Red Corner

Kevin Holland

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1482

Elo

1510

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stephen ThompsonL5 streak

oldest →

vs Gilbert Burns · Jul 21

vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24

vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25

latest

Kevin Holland

oldest →

vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25

vs Mike Malott · Oct 25

DECvs Randy Brown · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stephen ThompsonMetricKevin Holland

4.05

Strikes / min

4.24

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

3.21

54%

Strike defense

50%

0.23

TDs / 15 min

0.79

63%

Takedown defense

57%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.05evenly matched on net striking+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stephen ThompsonKevin Holland

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stephen Thompson(10 fights)Kevin Holland(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -27.4|Blue +27.4

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +266.0|Blue -266.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stephen ThompsonTargetKevin Holland

By target zone

103

54% acc · 63%

Head

40% acc · 44%

86% acc · 26%

Body

79% acc · 19%

95% acc · 11%

Leg

88% acc · 37%

By position

150

62% acc · 92%

Distance

52% acc · 82%

68% acc · 8%

Clinch

96% acc · 18%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stephen Thompson rounds

even

Kevin Holland rounds

Round 1Kevin Holland edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:00

49Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:04

33Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 3Stephen Thompson edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:06

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 4Stephen Thompson edged it

Sig. strikes48

Takedowns0

Control0:37

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

163 / 260

Sig Strikes

119 / 210

63%

Sig Str %

55%

178 / 278

Total Strikes

123 / 214

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 6

—

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:47

Ctrl Time

1:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kevin Holland	49 / 70	52 / 73	0 / 0
1	Stephen Thompson	34 / 47	38 / 51	0 / 0
2	Kevin Holland	33 / 66	33 / 66	1 / 1
2	Stephen Thompson	38 / 67	40 / 69	0 / 0
3	Stephen Thompson	43 / 76	48 / 81	0 / 0
3	Kevin Holland	25 / 50	25 / 50	1 / 1
4	Stephen Thompson	48 / 70	52 / 77	0 / 0
4	Kevin Holland	12 / 24	13 / 25	0 / 4

Stephen Thompson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights21

Kevin Holland

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights27