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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Stephen Thompson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1482

Elo1456

Stephen ThompsonvsJorge MasvidalUFC Prediction Result

UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre · Saturday, November 4, 2017New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Stephen Thompson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupStephen Thompson: StrikervsJorge Masvidal: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Jorge Masvidal wins(50.3%)

Actual result: Stephen Thompson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jorge Masvidal at +165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jorge Masvidal has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Stephen Thompson

Red Corner

Jorge Masvidal

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1482

Elo

1456

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stephen ThompsonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24

vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25

latest

Jorge MasvidalL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nate Diaz · Nov 19

vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 20

KOvs Kamaru Usman · Apr 21

vs Colby Covington · Mar 22

vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stephen ThompsonMetricJorge Masvidal

4.05

Strikes / min

4.05

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

54%

Strike defense

64%

0.23

TDs / 15 min

1.38

63%

Takedown defense

72%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.05evenly matched on net striking+1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stephen ThompsonJorge Masvidal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stephen Thompson(10 fights)Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +26.2|Blue -26.2

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stephen ThompsonTargetJorge Masvidal

By target zone

42% acc · 70%

Head

11% acc · 21%

50% acc · 24%

Body

38% acc · 12%

80% acc · 6%

Leg

56% acc · 67%

By position

45% acc · 100%

Distance

28% acc · 93%

0% acc

Clinch

60% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stephen Thompson rounds

even

Jorge Masvidal rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Stephen Thompson edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Stephen Thompson edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:01

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

70 / 156

Sig Strikes

42 / 142

44.7%

Sig Str %

30.7%

70 / 156

Total Strikes

42 / 142

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jorge Masvidal	12 / 33	12 / 33	0 / 0
1	Stephen Thompson	13 / 27	13 / 27	0 / 0
2	Jorge Masvidal	14 / 43	14 / 43	0 / 1
2	Stephen Thompson	18 / 43	18 / 43	0 / 0
3	Jorge Masvidal	16 / 66	16 / 66	0 / 1
3	Stephen Thompson	39 / 86	39 / 86	0 / 0

Stephen Thompson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights21

Jorge Masvidal

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights22