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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Joaquin Buckley won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1482

Elo1516

Stephen ThompsonvsJoaquin BuckleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Saturday, October 5, 2024Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Joaquin Buckley won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:17

Style matchupStephen Thompson: StrikervsJoaquin Buckley: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Joaquin Buckley wins(67.9%)

Actual result: Joaquin Buckley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joaquin Buckley at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stephen Thompson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Joaquin Buckley has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Joaquin Buckley (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Stephen Thompson

Red Corner

Joaquin Buckley

Blue Corner

+185

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-225

(69%)

1482

Elo

1516

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stephen ThompsonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Gilbert Burns · Jul 21

vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23

vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25

latest

Joaquin BuckleyL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Vicente Luque · Mar 24

vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 24

KOvs Colby Covington · Dec 24

vs Kamaru Usman · Jun 25

DECvs Sean Brady · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stephen ThompsonMetricJoaquin Buckley

4.05

Strikes / min

3.62

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

3.10

54%

Strike defense

58%

0.23

TDs / 15 min

1.43

63%

Takedown defense

70%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.05evenly matched on net striking+0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stephen ThompsonJoaquin Buckley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stephen Thompson(10 fights)Joaquin Buckley(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -33.5|Blue +33.5

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +147.0|Blue -147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stephen ThompsonTargetJoaquin Buckley

By target zone

41% acc · 78%

Head

29% acc · 68%

78% acc · 14%

Body

75% acc · 26%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

67% acc · 6%

By position

40% acc · 73%

Distance

34% acc · 82%

87% acc · 27%

Clinch

56% acc · 15%

0% acc

Ground

50% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stephen Thompson rounds

even

Joaquin Buckley rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:18Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:03

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:37Control

Round 3Joaquin Buckley edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 106

Sig Strikes

34 / 93

45.7%

Sig Str %

35.3%

63 / 121

Total Strikes

55 / 117

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 7

—

TD %

58%

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

4:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Joaquin Buckley	6 / 26	16 / 39	2 / 3
1	Stephen Thompson	15 / 28	21 / 35	0 / 0
2	Joaquin Buckley	12 / 33	20 / 41	2 / 4
2	Stephen Thompson	22 / 45	28 / 51	0 / 0
3	Joaquin Buckley	16 / 34	19 / 37	0 / 0
3	Stephen Thompson	12 / 33	14 / 35	0 / 0

Stephen Thompson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights21

Joaquin Buckley

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights17