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Welterweight
5 Rounds
Stephen Thompson won · U-DEC
Elo1482
Stephen Thompson
Elo1478
Geoff Neal editorial illustration

Stephen ThompsonvsGeoff NealUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · Saturday, December 19, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Stephen Thompson won

U-DEC

Style matchupStephen Thompson: StrikervsGeoff Neal: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Geoff Neal wins(72.7%)

Actual result: Stephen Thompson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Geoff Neal at -117 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Geoff Neal has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Geoff Neal (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Stephen Thompson
Red Corner
VS
Geoff Neal
Blue Corner
-103
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-117
(54%)
1482
Elo
1478
43
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
5'11"
190.5 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stephen ThompsonL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21
W
KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22
L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23
L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24
L
vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25
latest
Geoff NealL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Mar 23
L
vs Ian Machado Garry · Feb 24
W
KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Oct 24
L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Aug 25
L
KOvs Uros Medic · Feb 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stephen ThompsonMetricGeoff Neal
4.05
Strikes / min
5.02
3.00
Strikes absorbed / min
5.50
54%
Strike defense
57%
0.23
TDs / 15 min
0.54
63%
Takedown defense
87%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.05Δ 1.53 — meaningful gap-0.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1599 vs 1589Strikes4.2 vs 4.9Takedowns0.3 vs 0.5Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.20Form0.2 vs 1.0
Stephen ThompsonGeoff Neal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601475149015051520← oldermost recent →
Stephen Thompson(10 fights)Geoff Neal(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +4.7|Blue -4.7
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red +1.6|Blue -1.6
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +42.0|Blue -42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stephen ThompsonTargetGeoff Neal

By target zone

124
35% acc · 73%
Head
71
44% acc · 84%
41
89% acc · 24%
Body
8
73% acc · 9%
6
100% acc · 4%
Leg
6
86% acc · 7%

By position

165
41% acc · 96%
Distance
79
47% acc · 93%
6
75% acc · 4%
Clinch
6
60% acc · 7%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

5
Stephen Thompson rounds
0
even
0
Geoff Neal rounds
Round 1Stephen Thompson edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:00
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Stephen Thompson edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control0:00
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:30Control
Round 3Stephen Thompson edged it
Sig. strikes33
Takedowns0
Control0:00
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:32Control
Round 4Stephen Thompson edged it
Sig. strikes34
Takedowns0
Control0:00
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:04Control
Round 5Stephen Thompson edged it
Sig. strikes49
Takedowns0
Control0:00
33Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:40Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
171 / 406
Sig Strikes
85 / 179
41.4%
Sig Str %
46.2%
191 / 428
Total Strikes
110 / 205
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
3:46

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Geoff Neal7 / 307 / 300 / 00
1Stephen Thompson25 / 6625 / 660 / 00
2Geoff Neal15 / 2522 / 330 / 00
2Stephen Thompson30 / 7036 / 760 / 00
3Geoff Neal15 / 3325 / 430 / 00
3Stephen Thompson33 / 8041 / 890 / 00
4Stephen Thompson34 / 7535 / 760 / 00
4Geoff Neal15 / 3118 / 340 / 00
5Geoff Neal33 / 6038 / 650 / 00
5Stephen Thompson49 / 11554 / 1210 / 00

Stephen Thompson

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights21

Geoff Neal

StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights14