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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Gabriel Bonfim won · S-DEC R3

Elo1482

Elo1565

Stephen ThompsonvsGabriel BonfimUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Saturday, July 12, 2025Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Gabriel Bonfim won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupStephen Thompson: StrikervsGabriel Bonfim: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Gabriel Bonfim wins(90.8%)

Actual result: Gabriel Bonfim wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gabriel Bonfim at -430 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gabriel Bonfim enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Stephen Thompson

Red Corner

Gabriel Bonfim

Blue Corner

+300

(25%)

Vegas Odds

-430

(81%)

1482

Elo

1565

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stephen ThompsonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Gilbert Burns · Jul 21

vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24

latest

Gabriel BonfimW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nicolas Dalby · Nov 23

vs Ange Loosa · Jul 24

SUBvs Khaos Williams · Feb 25

KOvs Randy Brown · Nov 25

DECvs Belal Muhammad · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stephen ThompsonMetricGabriel Bonfim

4.05

Strikes / min

4.61

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

3.68

54%

Strike defense

63%

0.23

TDs / 15 min

3.60

63%

Takedown defense

76%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.05evenly matched on net striking+0.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stephen ThompsonGabriel Bonfim

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stephen Thompson(10 fights)Gabriel Bonfim(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -82.6|Blue +82.6

Recent Form

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stephen ThompsonTargetGabriel Bonfim

By target zone

34% acc · 50%

Head

33% acc · 30%

70% acc · 33%

Body

83% acc · 13%

64% acc · 17%

Leg

77% acc · 57%

By position

45% acc · 88%

Distance

52% acc · 85%

60% acc · 7%

Clinch

86% acc · 15%

50% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stephen Thompson rounds

even

Gabriel Bonfim rounds

Round 1Gabriel Bonfim edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:11

14Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:26Control

Round 2Stephen Thompson edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:02

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:18Control

Round 3Gabriel Bonfim edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:15

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:45Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 92

Sig Strikes

40 / 72

39.7%

Sig Str %

55.3%

78 / 135

Total Strikes

55 / 93

0 / 2

TDs

5 / 14

TD %

39.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:28

Ctrl Time

5:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gabriel Bonfim	14 / 24	17 / 28	2 / 3
1	Stephen Thompson	6 / 24	9 / 28	0 / 0
2	Gabriel Bonfim	16 / 30	16 / 30	1 / 5
2	Stephen Thompson	29 / 47	37 / 55	0 / 0
3	Gabriel Bonfim	10 / 18	22 / 35	2 / 6
3	Stephen Thompson	7 / 21	32 / 52	0 / 2

Stephen Thompson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights21

Gabriel Bonfim

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8