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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Darren Till won · U-DEC R5

Elo1482

Elo1443

Stephen ThompsonvsDarren TillUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · Sunday, May 27, 2018Liverpool, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Darren Till won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Stephen Thompson wins(60.5%)

Actual result: Darren Till wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Stephen Thompson at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Darren Till enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Darren Till (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Stephen Thompson

Red Corner

Darren Till

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1482

Elo

1443

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stephen ThompsonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24

vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25

latest

Darren TillL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 19

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Nov 19

vs Robert Whittaker · Jul 20

SUBvs Derek Brunson · Sep 21

SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Dec 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stephen ThompsonMetricDarren Till

4.05

Strikes / min

2.30

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

54%

Strike defense

56%

0.23

TDs / 15 min

0.55

63%

Takedown defense

69%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.05Δ 2.06 — meaningful gap-1.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stephen ThompsonDarren Till

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stephen Thompson(10 fights)Darren Till(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +39.0|Blue -39.0

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stephen ThompsonTargetDarren Till

By target zone

9% acc · 27%

Head

21% acc · 47%

68% acc · 43%

Body

42% acc · 13%

60% acc · 30%

Leg

56% acc · 39%

By position

23% acc · 97%

Distance

28% acc · 89%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

80% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stephen Thompson rounds

even

Darren Till rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Darren Till edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 5Darren Till edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 126

Sig Strikes

38 / 126

23.2%

Sig Str %

31%

31 / 127

Total Strikes

40 / 129

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Darren Till	4 / 12	4 / 12	0 / 0
1	Stephen Thompson	5 / 18	5 / 18	0 / 0
2	Darren Till	9 / 25	9 / 25	0 / 0
2	Stephen Thompson	6 / 28	6 / 28	0 / 0
3	Darren Till	9 / 32	9 / 32	0 / 0
3	Stephen Thompson	8 / 31	8 / 31	0 / 0
4	Stephen Thompson	8 / 26	8 / 26	0 / 0
4	Darren Till	7 / 33	7 / 33	0 / 0
5	Darren Till	9 / 24	11 / 27	0 / 0
5	Stephen Thompson	3 / 23	4 / 24	0 / 1

Stephen Thompson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights21

Darren Till

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights11