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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Belal Muhammad won · U-DEC R3

Elo1482

Elo1479

Stephen ThompsonvsBelal MuhammadUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Saturday, December 18, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Belal Muhammad won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupStephen Thompson: StrikervsBelal Muhammad: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Belal Muhammad wins(71.2%)

Actual result: Belal Muhammad wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Belal Muhammad at +190 American odds

+$190 profit

$290 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Belal Muhammad enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Belal Muhammad has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Stephen Thompson

Red Corner

Belal Muhammad

Blue Corner

-235

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1482

Elo

1479

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stephen ThompsonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Gilbert Burns · Jul 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24

vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25

latest

Belal MuhammadL3 streak

oldest →

vs Gilbert Burns · May 23

vs Leon Edwards · Jul 24

vs Jack Della Maddalena · May 25

vs Ian Machado Garry · Nov 25

DECvs Gabriel Bonfim · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stephen ThompsonMetricBelal Muhammad

4.05

Strikes / min

4.43

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

3.82

54%

Strike defense

55%

0.23

TDs / 15 min

2.14

63%

Takedown defense

90%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.05evenly matched on net striking+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stephen ThompsonBelal Muhammad

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stephen Thompson(10 fights)Belal Muhammad(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.3|Blue -3.3

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stephen ThompsonTargetBelal Muhammad

By target zone

52% acc · 74%

Head

61% acc · 97%

100% acc · 26%

Body

100% acc · 2%

Leg

50% acc · 2%

By position

59% acc · 89%

Distance

20% acc · 3%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

50% acc · 5%

Ground

65% acc · 95%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stephen Thompson rounds

even

Belal Muhammad rounds

Round 1Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:45

44Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:07Control

Round 2Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:11Control

Round 3Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:07

4Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:39Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 32

Sig Strikes

58 / 95

55%

Sig Str %

60%

51 / 67

Total Strikes

171 / 271

0 / 1

TDs

7 / 9

TD %

80.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:52

Ctrl Time

11:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Belal Muhammad	44 / 72	64 / 111	3 / 4	0
1	Stephen Thompson	10 / 16	28 / 36	0 / 0	0
2	Belal Muhammad	10 / 16	42 / 64	2 / 2	1
2	Stephen Thompson	7 / 11	12 / 16	0 / 0	0
3	Belal Muhammad	4 / 7	65 / 96	2 / 3	0
3	Stephen Thompson	2 / 5	11 / 15	0 / 1	0

Stephen Thompson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights21

Belal Muhammad

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights21