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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Anthony Pettis won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1482

Elo1493

Stephen ThompsonvsAnthony PettisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · Saturday, March 23, 2019Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Pettis won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:55

Style matchupStephen Thompson: StrikervsAnthony Pettis: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Stephen Thompson wins(57.0%)

Actual result: Anthony Pettis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Stephen Thompson at -430 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Stephen Thompson

Red Corner

Anthony Pettis

Blue Corner

-430

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+345

(22%)

1482

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stephen ThompsonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24

vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25

latest

Anthony PettisW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tony Ferguson · Oct 18

vs Nate Diaz · Aug 19

SUBvs Diego Ferreira · Jan 20

vs Donald Cerrone · May 20

vs Alex Morono · Dec 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stephen ThompsonMetricAnthony Pettis

4.05

Strikes / min

3.05

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

54%

Strike defense

54%

0.23

TDs / 15 min

0.61

63%

Takedown defense

60%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.05Δ 1.44 — meaningful gap-0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stephen ThompsonAnthony Pettis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stephen Thompson(10 fights)Anthony Pettis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.6|Blue +10.6

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +132.0|Blue -132.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stephen ThompsonTargetAnthony Pettis

By target zone

40% acc · 60%

Head

24% acc · 16%

45% acc · 19%

Body

58% acc · 22%

59% acc · 21%

Leg

91% acc · 63%

By position

44% acc · 100%

Distance

57% acc · 94%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stephen Thompson rounds

even

Anthony Pettis rounds

Round 1Stephen Thompson edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 107

Sig Strikes

32 / 55

42.5%

Sig Str %

57%

47 / 107

Total Strikes

32 / 55

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Anthony Pettis	12 / 25	12 / 25	0 / 0
1	Stephen Thompson	17 / 44	17 / 44	0 / 0
2	Anthony Pettis	20 / 30	20 / 30	0 / 0
2	Stephen Thompson	30 / 63	30 / 63	0 / 0

Stephen Thompson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights21

Anthony Pettis

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20