Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Stephanie Luciano won · U-DEC R3

Elo1515

Elo1548

Stephanie LucianovsTalita AlencarUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Saturday, August 10, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Stephanie Luciano won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupStephanie Luciano: Well-roundedvsTalita Alencar: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Stephanie Luciano wins(66.6%)

Actual result: Stephanie Luciano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Talita Alencar enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Stephanie Luciano has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stephanie Luciano has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Stephanie Luciano

Red Corner

Talita Alencar

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1515

Elo

1548

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'1"

165.1 cm

Reach

147.32 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stephanie Luciano

oldest →

vs Sam Hughes · Mar 25

SUBvs Ravena Oliveira · Oct 25

latest

Talita AlencarW4 streak

oldest →

vs Rayanne dos Santos · Dec 23

vs Vanessa Demopoulos · Apr 25

SUBvs Ariane Carnelossi · Nov 25

DECvs Julia Polastri · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stephanie LucianoMetricTalita Alencar

5.20

Strikes / min

3.09

3.04

Strikes absorbed / min

3.67

64%

Strike defense

51%

1.30

TDs / 15 min

3.01

80%

Takedown defense

66%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.16Δ 2.74 — meaningful gap-0.58

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stephanie LucianoTalita Alencar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stephanie Luciano(3 fights)Talita Alencar(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -32.9|Blue +32.9

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Grappler Score

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stephanie LucianoTargetTalita Alencar

By target zone

35% acc · 68%

Head

20% acc · 49%

64% acc · 19%

Body

36% acc · 39%

64% acc · 13%

Leg

71% acc · 12%

By position

40% acc · 92%

Distance

26% acc · 88%

71% acc · 7%

Clinch

56% acc · 12%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stephanie Luciano rounds

even

Talita Alencar rounds

Round 1Stephanie Luciano edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:04

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Stephanie Luciano edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:24

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 3Stephanie Luciano edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:42

Knockdowns1

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

72 / 175

Sig Strikes

41 / 151

40.7%

Sig Str %

26%

87 / 190

Total Strikes

45 / 159

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 10

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:10

Ctrl Time

0:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Talita Alencar	17 / 55	17 / 55	0 / 0
1	Stephanie Luciano	26 / 67	27 / 68	0 / 0
2	Talita Alencar	9 / 41	9 / 42	1 / 8
2	Stephanie Luciano	24 / 54	31 / 61	0 / 0
3	Talita Alencar	15 / 55	19 / 62	0 / 2
3	Stephanie Luciano	22 / 54	29 / 61	0 / 0

Stephanie Luciano

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights3

Talita Alencar

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach58.0"

Fights5