Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Sam Hughes won · S-DEC R3

Elo1515

Elo1509

Stephanie LucianovsSam HughesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Saturday, March 15, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sam Hughes won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupStephanie Luciano: Well-roundedvsSam Hughes: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Stephanie Luciano wins(59.3%)

Actual result: Sam Hughes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Stephanie Luciano at -168 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stephanie Luciano has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Stephanie Luciano

Red Corner

Sam Hughes

Blue Corner

-168

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+142

(41%)

1515

Elo

1509

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stephanie LucianoW2 streak

oldest →

vs Talita Alencar · Aug 24

SUBvs Ravena Oliveira · Oct 25

latest

Sam Hughes

oldest →

vs Jaqueline Amorim · Apr 23

vs Yazmin Jauregui · Feb 24

vs Viktoriia Dudakova · Aug 24

SUBvs Shauna Bannon · Sep 25

vs Piera Rodriguez · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stephanie LucianoMetricSam Hughes

5.20

Strikes / min

4.41

3.04

Strikes absorbed / min

4.69

64%

Strike defense

58%

1.30

TDs / 15 min

1.12

80%

Takedown defense

63%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.16Δ 2.44 — meaningful gap-0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stephanie LucianoSam Hughes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stephanie Luciano(3 fights)Sam Hughes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.5|Blue -5.5

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stephanie LucianoTargetSam Hughes

By target zone

22% acc · 55%

Head

38% acc · 57%

68% acc · 28%

Body

75% acc · 20%

93% acc · 17%

Leg

95% acc · 24%

By position

32% acc · 96%

Distance

48% acc · 91%

60% acc · 4%

Clinch

75% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stephanie Luciano rounds

even

Sam Hughes rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns0

Control0:15

35Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:47Control

Round 2Sam Hughes edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:19Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control1:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

82 / 251

Sig Strikes

76 / 152

33.7%

Sig Str %

48.3%

101 / 273

Total Strikes

146 / 233

1 / 2

TDs

3 / 8

50%

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:15

Ctrl Time

4:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sam Hughes	35 / 68	42 / 75	2 / 2	0
1	Stephanie Luciano	42 / 104	52 / 114	0 / 1	0
2	Sam Hughes	13 / 29	71 / 98	1 / 1	1
2	Stephanie Luciano	18 / 44	20 / 47	0 / 0	0
3	Sam Hughes	28 / 55	33 / 60	0 / 5	0
3	Stephanie Luciano	22 / 103	29 / 112	1 / 1	0

Stephanie Luciano

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights3

Sam Hughes

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights12